probability of exceedance 
The models of the bridges in detail including pounding between decks are developed in DRAIN2DX and nonlinear time history analyses are conducted for a suite of ground motions having 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years in the CSUS.


And the regional sketch maps of the average varying values of intensity and the average relative varying values of peak acceleration with different probability of exceedance in 50 years are drawn in the Chinese mainland.


This paper discusses the relation between twostep seismic design and the standard of probability of exceedance, and the relation of threelevels seismic ground motion parameters given by probability method and comprehensive probability method.


The relative size relations of the ground motions with 2%, 10%, 63% probability of exceedance in 50 years, namely "large earthquake", "moderate earthquake", and "small earthquake", are discussed through a practical example of seismic hazard analysis.


Bayes estimate of the probability of exceedance of annual floods


The load effects in a semiprobabilistic design were also calculated at an appropriate probability of exceedance level.


Maps of peak ground acceleration contours, based on 10percent of probability of exceedance in 50 years and 100 years time spans,were developed.


A global seismic loss map is then compiled both for the intensity at 10% probability of exceedance and the probable maximum intensity.


Seismic hazard maps in terms of both macroseismic intensity and peak ground acceleration (PGA) at 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years are provided.


The Dutch flood defences along the river Rhine are designed for water levels with a probability of exceedance of 1/1250 per year.


This means that each forecast is associated with a reliability or probability of exceedance.


return period in years, probability of exceedance for different intensities and different periods of interest.


Probabilistic microzoning maps may be constructed showing macroseismic intensity, peak ground acceleration, response and design spectra for various return periods (probability of exceedance), that allow optimization of engineering decisions.


Although the return level has a closed form, it is a nonlinear function of the GPD parameters and the probability of exceedance.


Assume for this example that equivalent static analysis is used for an earthquake load having 50% probability of exceedance within 50 years.


Because of very good efficiency, the method was extended to the calculation of the longterm probability of exceedance in nonlinear responses.


Charleston, SC uniform hazard response spectrum data for 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years and approximate spectrum.


Equating the average occurrence rate with the annual probability of exceedance is not appropriate and causes confusion.


Earthquake hazards are expressed in terms of the probability of exceedance of ground shaking intensity.


For example, the maps showing 10 percent probability of exceedance in 50 years depict an annual probability of 1 in 475 of being exceeded each year.

