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exceedance probability
    3. Three man-made earthquake waves are composed with the exceedance probability of 10% and 3%.
    3.根据相关资料合成了100年超越概率为10%和3%的各三条人工地震波。
    By means of it,a seismic disaster prediction map of Shandong area with 10% exceedance probability of 50 years was presented.
    依此方法,给出山东地区50a超越概率为10%的震害预测略图
    In order to meet the needs of anti-seismic design,the time history curve s of bedrock accelerate (exceedance probability is 5% in 50 years,and 2% in 100 years) were compounded.
    为满足水库抗震设计的需要 ,合成了 50年超越概率 5%和 10 0年超越概率 2 %的基岩加速度时程曲线。
    Recently, the parameter of design seismic ground motion is often given by the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis method, and the exceedance probability 0.1 during a 50 year period is taken as the criterion of basic seismic intensity.
    工程场地的设计地震动参数,目前多用概率地震危险性分析的方法给出。 场地的地震基本烈度以设计基准期T=50年、加速度超越概率P=0.1的标准确定。
    in this paper, the two seismic zoning maps with exceedance probability of 10% in 50 years are given through using the method of seismic hazard analysis and in the light of understanding fault activity of Shimian-Xichang area in Ho-locence and seismicity inhomogeneity in time, location and magnitude and estimating the earthquake tendency in this area.
    本文基于对石棉—西昌地区全新世断层活动与地震活动在时间上、空间上、强度上不均匀性的认识,结合四川省近廿年来对该区地震趋势估计,采用地震危险性概率分析方法,编制了此区50年超越概率10%的地震烈度和地表基岩水平峰值加速度区划图。
    We calculate and analyse the dam’s nonlinear dynamic characteristics usingdynamic nonlinear finite element method,and give the possible pull-open regions on the dam' s surfaceand the possible plastic failure regions in the dam under l0%and 2%of exceedance probability duringaperiod of 50 years,andgive the acceleration time history and shear stress time history of several rep-resentative points.
    用动力非线性有限元法计算并分析了坝体的非线性动力特性,给出了50年超越概率为10%和2%两种风险水平下,坝体表面可能出现的拉裂区域和坝体内可能出现的塑性破坏区域,并给出了有代表性的一些地点的加速度时程和动剪应力时程。
    In the prediction,the probabilistic approach is used,i. e. probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is first performed based on the coordinates of 55 dams and 59 key embankment points,giving the exceedance probability of intensity I of these structures for a given period T;
    本项预测采用概率方法,首先根据55座土坝和59个重点堤围的座标进行概率地震危险性分析,给出它们在一定预测年限T(取50年和100年)的地震烈度I的超越概率
    then, the exceedance probability of different categories of damage for the structures within the predicted period is evaluated by the probabilistic equation,based on the above two results, and the category of damage of these structures is also estimated,taking 10% of the exceedance probability as the criterion.
    然后,根据上述两方面结果用概率公式评价各土坝和堤围卢、在预测年限内各震害等级的超越概率,并取10%超越概率为标准,估计震害等级。
    The analysis result is depicted by exceedance probability curves.
    并提出以超越概率曲线的方法来表达火灾危险性分析的结果。
    (4) Forthe multiple potential seismic sources, after repeating step(3), we can obtain exceedance probability instudied area in given time Tyears by using statistical method. Therefore, this paper's method not onlykeeps characteristics of former seismic hazard analySis about potential seismic source zonation andearthquake occurrence law, but also absorbs research results of strong seismology about strong groundmotion.
    (4)对于多个潜在震源,重复(3)的步骤,由统计方法可计算出在T年内场地的超越概率.因此,本文提出的方法既保留了以往地震危险性分析关于潜在震源划分、地震发生规律的特点,又充分吸收了强震地震学关于强地面运动的研究成果。
    According to Poisson process model, a generalanalysis method is suggested. The analysis result is depicted by exceedance probability curves.
    在此基础上建议了地震次生火灾危险性分析方法,并以超越概率曲线的方法表达次生火灾危险性分析的结果。
    Therefore,it has become more and more important in ensuring subway safety during earthquake. In this paper,based on the fifth subway line in Beijing,the relationships of ground motion parameters and response spectrums in different site conditions,different risk levels and different depths are discussed. It is determined that the 50 year exceedance probability 63%、10%、2% can be used as the subway earthquake fortification levels.
    本文将以北京具有典型意义的地铁线路———北京地铁五号线作为研究目标,在对沿线地震、地质条件分析的基础上,通过分析研究在不同场地条件、不同风险水平和不同深度条件下的地震动参数和反应谱变化规律,确定了地铁工程的抗震设防概率风险水平为50 a超越概率63%、10%、2%,设计地震动参数取地表计算值。
    Through the analysis of FEA model of the whole bridge and dynamic test of main span 220m Xu Gou bridge,the dynamic characters of reinforced concrete box rib arch bridge are analyzed,at the same time the seismic waves of 50 year exceedance probability of 3% and El Centro(be regulated to 7degree) are used for time history analysis of the structure.
    结合跨径220米的许沟大桥结构设计,通过对全桥有限元模型动力分析和通车动载试验,对钢筋混凝土拱桥全桥动力特性进行分析,并选用50年超越概率为3%的人工地震波和E l Centro波(调整至7度)进行时程分析。
    Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis(PSHA),the most widely used method for assessing seismic hazard and risk,contains an error in its hazard calculation: incorrectly equating the conditional exceedance probability of the ground-motion attenuation relationship(a function) to the exceedance probability of the ground-motion uncertainty(a variable).
    地震危险性概率分析(PSHA)是目前最广泛应用于地震灾害与风险性评估的方法。 然而它在计算中却存在着一个错误:把强地面运动衰减关系(一个函数)的条件超越概率等同于强地面运动误差(一个变量)的超越概率
 

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