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风险分析模型
    Risk analysis model of supplying power company under TOU price
    分时电价下供电公司盈亏风险分析模型
    Risk Analysis Model of Bidding Energy for Hydropower Plants and Its Application
    水电厂竞价电量的风险分析模型及应用
    Risk Analysis Model for Firepower Companies under Coal-Electricity Price Linkage
    煤电价格联动下火力发电企业的风险分析模型
    Purchasing Risk Analysis Model & Management Tactics Research on Power Grid
    电网企业购电风险分析模型及管理策略研究
    Based on the definition of model structure for risk simulation,the paper stresses the study of the improvements on traditional risk analysis model,the estimation of output results from risk simulation,the comparison of different alternatives,and risk simulation with graphics and animation,The methodology is more effective in estimating and evaluating risk,and makes risk analysis more compatible with the uncertainty of real world.
    在定义风险模拟基本模型的基础上,重点讨论对传统投资风险分析模型的修正与扩充、风险分析判据的模拟估计方法、不同投资方案的模拟比较方法以及投资风险分析的计算机图形描绘与动画模拟。 本文所述方法更能接纳和描述对投资风险分析产生不确定性影响的各种随机因素,对风险的估计和推断更为细致和准确。
    Based on the fuzzy set theory, the AHP principle, the systematic and orderly characteristics in any civil engineering tendering, we set up a risk analysis model when the dependence possibly exists between the risks, which provides a fairly scientific basis for deci ding the risk compensation.
    基于模糊集理论、AHP原理以及土木工程投标承包的系统性和程序性特点 ,建立起工程风险之间存在可依赖性的风险分析模型 ,为风险补偿费用的确定提供较为科学的依据
    Concerning with the risk of economic benefit of hydropower station, adopting "disassembling" analysis method, this paper identifies and briefly analyzes risk factors and their respective function mechanism of economic benefit for hydropower station. Therefore, the Risk Analysis Model basing on the Maximum Entropy Role is established and the solving method is presented.
    针对水电站经济效益风险 ,采用“分解”分析方法 ,辨识出影响水电站经济效益的风险因素 ,简要分析了各因素的作用机理 ,由此建立了基于最大熵原则的风险分析模型 ,给出了求解方法。
    Adopting the method of separated analysis, the general economic benefit system for water conservancy projects is in this paper dividesd into flood control, power generation and irrigation benefi subsystems their respective risk factors are then identified and a risk analysis model of economic benefit is established based on the Maximum Entropy Principle, the solving method is also presented.
    采用层次分析方法 ,将水利工程经济效益系统分为防洪、发电、灌溉效益子系统 ,辨识出风险因子 ,建立了基于最大熵原理 (准则 )的经济效益风险分析模型 ,并给出求解方法。
    A Monte-Carlo risk analysis model is built based on runoff forecasting. It adequately absorbs interrelated information of hydrological prediction system,and provides an efficient and feasible way for quantitative analysis and calculation involved in the risk involved in bidding energy.
    文中建立的基于径流预报特性的蒙特卡罗风险分析模型,在统计实验方法中充分吸纳了水文预报系统的相关信息,为定量分析计算水电厂申报电量的风险提供了一种有效、可行的途径和方法。
 

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