The seismic magnitude factor M f-value is uesed to earthquake medium term prediction in the South China and the Northeast China for testing the effect of forecasting earthquakes of M S≥5 0 in these regions in this paper.
将地震强度因子 Mf 值用于华南和东北地区地震的中期预报， 以检验 Mf值在上述地区对 M S≥50 级以上地震的预报效果。
The result shows that medium-term (annual) earthquake prediction can pass the test, the estimating mark is about (0.25)-0.3, which indicates the prediction result of annual consultation in Xinjiang Seismological Bureau has some medium-term prediction capability.
The pre -dieted results show that the medium-term prediction of the Datong- Yanggao modera -tely strong earthquake with Ms 6.1 and judgement of tendency after the earthquake have achieved good effects.
After the M6. 4 Baotou earthquake in Inner Mongolia in May 1996, the M6. 2 South Yel-low Sea earthquake in November 1996 , the M6. 2 Zhangbei-Shangyi earthquake on January 10, 1998 , another M ≥6 earthquake occurred in North China. Before this earthquake, re-gional seismicity showed obvious anomalous characteristics and the medium-term prediction was quite successful. Unfortunately, the short-term and imminent predictions were not made for this earthquake.
Using the conception of swarm information entropy, we research sixteen ear-thquake swarms and approach earthquake hazard in Shandong Province a and sur-roundings and application of swarm information entropy medium range forecast.
Based on the test analysis of 360 circulation prediction pictures from ECMWF during 2004 to 2005 used by medium range forecast, the basic rules how numerical prediction products from ECMWF are used in medium range forecast are found. Therefore it can improve the precision and time of the medium range forecast.