This thesis is aimed at deepening investigation of maritime traffic safety of XIAMEN port and nearby navigation area, at sufficiently utilizing the statistical data of waterborne traffic accidents, and at improving the management level of the waterborne traffic safety. On the basis of analysis and investigation to its historical statistical data of maritime traffic accident and statistical methods, this thesis advances more scientific and reasonable methods on the statistics, analysis, and forecast of waterborne traffic accidents.
Based on the forecasting model of grey GM(1,1),the article applies the model of Markov to optimize the result,and applies the grey-Markov model created thereby to forecasting maritime accidents. At the end,using the national maritime accidents data of the years 1979~1998 the amount of accidents in 1999 is forecast.
On this basis, forecasting models which are suitable for the national maritime accidents are expounded particularly, for example, regression analysis, grey-system and exponential smoothing method.