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| | In this paper we build a forecast method of simplex projection operator using fold and extension character of chaoticattracting sets in phase space. The forecast method is concerned with local nonlinear and I.yapunov characteristic exponent of predicted points, avoids the problem of traditional analogue predictive functions and equations, decreases some analogue Parameters.The method is used to forecast the time series data of I.orenz and Logistic model, and the forecast results show that the methodis simpl... | | 本文根据混沌系统奇怪吸引子在相空间中的伸缩和折叠的几何特征,建立了单纯形投影算子(simplexprojectionoperator)预测方法.该方法主要侧重考虑了被预测点的局部非线性特征及Lyapunov特征指数,避免了传统预测函数和方程的模拟问题,减少了模拟参量.对Lorenz方程和Logistic映射资料进行预测分析的结果表明,此方法简单易行,缩短了计算时间,在预测时问尺度及精度上具有较强的预测能力. | | 文摘来源 | | Phase space theory is used to analyze the day SST of equatorial local area and nine moving average month air temperature ofQingdao (NMAMAT). The results show that the correlation dimeare and abedding dimension of NMAMAT and SST are 5.83, 8, 3.93(anti-EI Nino) or 4.37 (EI Nino), 11 (anti-EI Nino) or 9 (EI Nino), resnectivaly. The SST of EI Nino and anti-EI Nino can be described as chaotic phenomenon. The correlation dimension increase and embedding dimension decrease of EI Nino SST show that the S... | | 应用相空间理论对赤道单站日表层水温及青岛月平均气温的9点滑动平均资料进行了分析,结果表明:青岛月平均气温的9点滑动平均的相关维数和嵌入维数分别为5.83、8,当反厄尔尼诺发生时赤道日SST的相关维和嵌入维数分别为3.93、11,当厄尔尼诺发生时其相关维数和嵌入维数分别为4.37、9.揭示了无论是厄尔尼诺还是反厄尔尼诺发生赤道日SST都具有混沌特征,并且厄尔尼诺发生其内部结构复杂化使得支撑奇怪吸引子的雏数增加,而嵌入维数减少.这种现象是由于表层水温所隐含非线性作用显著增强所导致.根据以上分析结果应用单纯形投影算子(simplex projection operator)预测方法对赤道单站日SST和青岛月平均气温的9点滑动平均资料进行了预测,其前8点最大相对误差分别为0.42%,7.4%. | | 文摘来源 | |   |
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