In case the earthquake intensity of a city with a 10% exceeding probability lies between 6.5°~6.8°,7.5°~7.8° or 8.5°~8.8°,the optimal fortification intensity and earthquake parameters of such a city can be determined by the engineering policy-making analysis of the results of seismic hazard and condition of the city combining with the aseismic fortification delimitation of the city.
It is different from the seismic zoning maps of China which were compiled in 1957 and 1977. The users concern the concept of exceeding probability and probability level of 0. 1 in 50 years adopted by the new zoning map.
According to the need of design code for anti-seismic of engineering constructure,the bedrock peak acceleration rate and response spectrum of exceeding probability of 63%,10% and 2% are(given) respectively and seismic motion parameters are also calculated,which will provide the evidences for anti-seismic design of this electric power equipment station.
According to calculation by fault fracture model, provided the transcendental probability is 0. 01 with consideration of design durability of major hydraulic structures being 100 years,design intensity of earthquake at Changzhou will be Ⅶ grade and maximum horrizontal acceleration a_(max)= 0. 12g.
With reference to the design of the main bridge of the Bridge, the finite element model for dynamic analysis is established, and the dynamic behavior of the overall rigid-frame bridge is calculated. In the aseismatic analysis of the Bridge, two levels of the seismic response spectrums, that is, 10% of the 50 years transcendental probability (P1) and 2% of the 50 years transcendental probability (P2) are selected.
The intensity values of M≥4. 0 earthquakes occuring around Linfen were calculated in Linfen and the transcendental probability curve (seismic risk curve) was given in future 100 years using seismic data from 1022 to 1993. The result show that the extreme value method of calculation intensity can serve as supplement and test of comprehensive probability method of seismic risk analysis.
the seismic environment and engineering condition around the site of Mobile Communication Center in Shandong Province are briefly introduced. When the transcendental probability in 50 years is 63%, 10% and 2% respectively, the mean seismic intensity of the site is determined with seismic hazard analysis. Based on 1 dimensional shear wave theory, the seismic response of the site is analyzed, and the design aseismic parameters are obtained.
Through making use of tie probability calculation method of seismic hazard analyses, transcendental probability of the seismic effect intensity and ground acceleration for Sandoupin dam site in different periods were obeained.
Through the analysis of FEA model of the whole bridge and dynamic test of main span 220m Xu Gou bridge,the dynamic characters of reinforced concrete box rib arch bridge are analyzed,at the same time the seismic waves of 50 year exceedance probability of 3% and El Centro(be regulated to 7degree) are used for time history analysis of the structure.
结合跨径220米的许沟大桥结构设计,通过对全桥有限元模型动力分析和通车动载试验,对钢筋混凝土拱桥全桥动力特性进行分析,并选用50年超越概率为3%的人工地震波和E l Centro波(调整至7度)进行时程分析。
in this paper, the two seismic zoning maps with exceedance probability of 10% in 50 years are given through using the method of seismic hazard analysis and in the light of understanding fault activity of Shimian-Xichang area in Ho-locence and seismicity inhomogeneity in time, location and magnitude and estimating the earthquake tendency in this area.
The result suggest that the basic intensity is 7. 3 degree while the given period is 50 years and the probability of exceedance is 0. 1. Accordingly the coefficient ofmaximum seismic effect is 0. 158 which could be the basic parameter for seismic design.
The intensity corresponding to 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years are calculated by using elliptical attenuation of earthquake intensity of western China and mixed model, which includes NB conditional probabilistic model and NB cumulative probabilistic model for characteristic earthquakes, and Segment Poisson Process for medium earthquakes.
The relative size relations of the ground motions with 2%, 10%, 63% probability of exceedance in 50 years, namely "large earthquake", "middle earthquake", and "small earthquake", are discussed through a practical example of seismic hazard analysis. The methods to determine seismic fortification criterion are discussed.
The statistic result shows, for different probability of exceedance the seismic intensity of earthquake changes greatly among cities, the seismic intensity of 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years can be regarded as the characteristic affected intensity of earthquake in a city, and can be the basis of determining the city special earthquake prevention level and a proper indicator of future earthquake′s impact on city.
The main conclusion of the present study is that the peak ground acceleration on bedrock is in the range 75～115 gal for the Hong Kong region, corresponding to a probability of exceedance of 10% over a return period of 50 years. For Jiulon site, this value is in the order of 92 7 gal. The seismic intensity of the region is rated as Ⅶ.
These results show that expected magnitude and expected distance are related not only to geometry of potential source and magnitude but also to the intensity of the site with certain exceeding probability.
When calculating the occurrence rate of the affected intensity, the difference of the exceeding probability is used.
We have inspected the effects of parameters continuing variation on the result and the effects of exceeding probability and upper bound magnitude of potential source on the parameter sensitivity.
The relative interaction is not great than 10% with annual exceeding probability 2 × 10-3.
The exceeding probability of the map is 10% within 50 years.
The models of the bridges in detail including pounding between decks are developed in DRAIN-2DX and nonlinear time history analyses are conducted for a suite of ground motions having 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years in the CSUS.
And the regional sketch maps of the average varying values of intensity and the average relative varying values of peak acceleration with different probability of exceedance in 50 years are drawn in the Chinese mainland.
This paper discusses the relation between two-step seismic design and the standard of probability of exceedance, and the relation of three-levels seismic ground motion parameters given by probability method and comprehensive probability method.
The relative size relations of the ground motions with 2%, 10%, 63% probability of exceedance in 50 years, namely "large earthquake", "moderate earthquake", and "small earthquake", are discussed through a practical example of seismic hazard analysis.
Bayes estimate of the probability of exceedance of annual floods