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超越概率     
相关语句
  exceeding probability
    The research results indicate that the earthquake degree is 6, considering the exceeding probability to be 10 percent in the future 50 years.
    本次工作通过地震危险性分析得到50年10%超越概率时地震计算烈度为6.0度。
短句来源
    This results in conservative fortification and large investment against earthquakes. The third generation seismic division map (1990) gives the intensity under 10% exceeding probability in 50 years. The fourth generation seismic division map (2001) adopted the same exceeding probability.
    我国现行的地震烈度区划图(1990)给出的是未来50年超越概率10%水平下的烈度值,“中国地震动参数区划图(2001)”也采用了相同的超越概率水平。
短句来源
    It can compute the contribution of characterastic earthquakes and possion earthquakes to exceeding probability. Finally it synthetizes both of them as an exceeding probability of potential surface displacement of active fault segments associated with earthquakes.
    评价了特征地震对工程场点位移超越概率的贡献,以及各档泊松地震对工程场点位移超越概率的贡献,最后将以上两种贡献求全概率得出地震活动断层段潜在地表位移超越概率
短句来源
    Through the basic computation above, the following results can be acquired: (1)Any construction site' s exceeding probability on a fault segment or displacement value under some exceeding probability in a period of time.
    通过以上这样一个基本的运算,最终可以求得:①断层段上任何一个工程场点在未来一定时段内,某一超越概率水平下的位移值,或者超越某一位移值的概率。
短句来源
    (2)with the same displacement value, any construction site' s exceeding probability or the location where exceeding probability reachs some value.
    ②断层段上未来一定时段内,在相同位错水平下,任何场点的位移超越概率,或者达到某一位移超越概率的场点相对位置。
短句来源
更多       
  transcendental probability
    Through making use of tie probability calculation method of seismic hazard analyses, transcendental probability of the seismic effect intensity and ground acceleration for Sandoupin dam site in different periods were obeained.
    并对三峡工程三斗坪坝址进行了地震危险性分析,给出了三斗坪坝址不同期限内的地震影响烈度和峰值地面加速度的超越概率
短句来源
    The intensity values of M≥4. 0 earthquakes occuring around Linfen were calculated in Linfen and the transcendental probability curve (seismic risk curve) was given in future 100 years using seismic data from 1022 to 1993. The result show that the extreme value method of calculation intensity can serve as supplement and test of comprehensive probability method of seismic risk analysis.
    利用1022─1993年的地震资料,计算了临汾(36.10°N,111.50°E)周围4级以上地震在临汾造成的烈度,绘制了未来100年临汾的烈度超越概率曲线(地震危险性曲线)。 结果表明,计算场地烈度的极值理论方法可作为地震危险性分析的综合概率法的补充和验证。
短句来源
  exceedance probability
    Recently, the parameter of design seismic ground motion is often given by the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis method, and the exceedance probability 0.1 during a 50 year period is taken as the criterion of basic seismic intensity.
    工程场地的设计地震动参数,目前多用概率地震危险性分析的方法给出。 场地的地震基本烈度以设计基准期T=50年、加速度超越概率P=0.1的标准确定。
短句来源
    in this paper, the two seismic zoning maps with exceedance probability of 10% in 50 years are given through using the method of seismic hazard analysis and in the light of understanding fault activity of Shimian-Xichang area in Ho-locence and seismicity inhomogeneity in time, location and magnitude and estimating the earthquake tendency in this area.
    本文基于对石棉—西昌地区全新世断层活动与地震活动在时间上、空间上、强度上不均匀性的认识,结合四川省近廿年来对该区地震趋势估计,采用地震危险性概率分析方法,编制了此区50年超越概率10%的地震烈度和地表基岩水平峰值加速度区划图。
短句来源
    In the prediction,the probabilistic approach is used,i. e. probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is first performed based on the coordinates of 55 dams and 59 key embankment points,giving the exceedance probability of intensity I of these structures for a given period T;
    本项预测采用概率方法,首先根据55座土坝和59个重点堤围的座标进行概率地震危险性分析,给出它们在一定预测年限T(取50年和100年)的地震烈度I的超越概率
短句来源
    then, the exceedance probability of different categories of damage for the structures within the predicted period is evaluated by the probabilistic equation,based on the above two results, and the category of damage of these structures is also estimated,taking 10% of the exceedance probability as the criterion.
    然后,根据上述两方面结果用概率公式评价各土坝和堤围卢、在预测年限内各震害等级的超越概率,并取10%超越概率为标准,估计震害等级。
短句来源
    (4) Forthe multiple potential seismic sources, after repeating step(3), we can obtain exceedance probability instudied area in given time Tyears by using statistical method. Therefore, this paper's method not onlykeeps characteristics of former seismic hazard analySis about potential seismic source zonation andearthquake occurrence law, but also absorbs research results of strong seismology about strong groundmotion.
    (4)对于多个潜在震源,重复(3)的步骤,由统计方法可计算出在T年内场地的超越概率.因此,本文提出的方法既保留了以往地震危险性分析关于潜在震源划分、地震发生规律的特点,又充分吸收了强震地震学关于强地面运动的研究成果。
短句来源
  probability of exceedance
    The result suggest that the basic intensity is 7. 3 degree while the given period is 50 years and the probability of exceedance is 0. 1. Accordingly the coefficient ofmaximum seismic effect is 0. 158 which could be the basic parameter for seismic design.
    计算表明,在给定50年工程期限,超越概率为10%时的场地烈度为7.3,相应最大地震影响系数为0.158。
短句来源
    The intensity corresponding to 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years are calculated by using elliptical attenuation of earthquake intensity of western China and mixed model, which includes NB conditional probabilistic model and NB cumulative probabilistic model for characteristic earthquakes, and Segment Poisson Process for medium earthquakes.
    特征地震选用NB模型条件概率和NB累积概率模型,中强震采用中国地震区划图(1990)的分档泊松模型,组成混合地震模型,用中国西部椭圆地震衰减公式,计算了未来50a,超越概率为10%的地震烈度。
短句来源
    For example, under the consideration of quasi-periodical characteristic model, the PGA(peak ground acceleration) value with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years of this study is about 8% to 70% in difference to that of newly published Seismic Motion Map of China. Under the consideration of low frequency factor, the PGA value is about 8% to 9% lower.
    计算结果表明,采用非均匀模型对地震危险性分析具有一定的影响,对高震级档年发生率较高的潜在震源区有明显的影响。 在本文的算例中,对于汤阴潜在震源区,在50年超越概率10%和2%情况下,在潜在震源区内部与边界附近,采用非均匀模型所获得的PGA与采用均匀模型得到的PGA差别可以达到7~9%。
短句来源
    Seismic parameters and time-distance curves of ground motion under 63%,10% and 3% probability of exceedance are set up by analysis of site seismic risk.
    论文通过地震危险性分析建立起超越概率63%、10%和3%的地震荷载的地震动参数和加速度时程。 利用循环荷载试验得出特殊地基土的动剪切模量、阻尼比与剪应变的关系;
短句来源
    As the map is mainly made for the use in land planning and earthquake resistant design of moderate-and small-sized engineering projects,the stan- dard of anti-seismic design takes the probability of exceedance as 10% within 50 years.
    该区划图主要是为国土规划和中小型工程抗震设计所用,因此设防标准取50年内超越概率为10%。
短句来源
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  exceeding probability
These results show that expected magnitude and expected distance are related not only to geometry of potential source and magnitude but also to the intensity of the site with certain exceeding probability.
      
When calculating the occurrence rate of the affected intensity, the difference of the exceeding probability is used.
      
We have inspected the effects of parameters continuing variation on the result and the effects of exceeding probability and upper bound magnitude of potential source on the parameter sensitivity.
      
The relative interaction is not great than 10% with annual exceeding probability 2 × 10-3.
      
The exceeding probability of the map is 10% within 50 years.
      
更多          
  exceedance probability
For estimation algorithm optimization, we applied a minimax approach with the risk measure in the form of the exceedance probability of the estimate of a prescribed level by an error.
      
Quantiles of these distributions are estimated to characterize the levels of water flow and turbidity with a given exceedance probability.
      
In the latter case, the distribution censored by the non-exceedance probability threshold, FT, was considered.
      
The usually calculated exceedance probability curves of ground motion are reduced as cumulative probability curves of normal distribution on some assumptions in this paper.
      
The larger the uncertainty, the flatter the exceedance probability curve is.
      
更多          
  probability of exceedance
The models of the bridges in detail including pounding between decks are developed in DRAIN-2DX and nonlinear time history analyses are conducted for a suite of ground motions having 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years in the CSUS.
      
And the regional sketch maps of the average varying values of intensity and the average relative varying values of peak acceleration with different probability of exceedance in 50 years are drawn in the Chinese mainland.
      
This paper discusses the relation between two-step seismic design and the standard of probability of exceedance, and the relation of three-levels seismic ground motion parameters given by probability method and comprehensive probability method.
      
The relative size relations of the ground motions with 2%, 10%, 63% probability of exceedance in 50 years, namely "large earthquake", "moderate earthquake", and "small earthquake", are discussed through a practical example of seismic hazard analysis.
      
Bayes estimate of the probability of exceedance of annual floods
      
更多          
  其他


Based on the results of seismic hazard analyses for 45 cities and towns in the Northern, North-western and South-western Regions of China, preliminary probabilistic calibration of Basic Intensity, as predicted by the Chinese Intensity Zoning Map, has been carried out. It is discovered that the Basic Intensity offered by the Zoning Map is roughly equivalent to an average intensity level with exceeding probability of 0.14 in 50 years.The calculation in this paper have been done in accordance with the common procedures...

Based on the results of seismic hazard analyses for 45 cities and towns in the Northern, North-western and South-western Regions of China, preliminary probabilistic calibration of Basic Intensity, as predicted by the Chinese Intensity Zoning Map, has been carried out. It is discovered that the Basic Intensity offered by the Zoning Map is roughly equivalent to an average intensity level with exceeding probability of 0.14 in 50 years.The calculation in this paper have been done in accordance with the common procedures of hazard analysis. Some main points that should be considered in practical application are as follows: 1) Reasonable estimation of the location and extent of potential seismic sources by both geotectonis structure and distribution of historical epicenters; 2) Estimation of the magnitude-recurrence relationships consistent with current level of seismicity; 3) Choice and use of the proper intensity attenuation laws, which reflect specific geotectonic structures of different regions.The results obtained from hazard analysis are discussed graphically and tabularly.

文中根据对我国华北、西北和西南地区45个城镇的地震危险性分析结果,对中国烈度区划图上预报的基本烈度进行了初步的概率标定。结果发现区划图上所提供的基本烈度大致相应于50年内超越概率为0.14的烈度水平。 文中的计算是按照地震危险性分析的一般步骤进行的。以下是在实际应用中考虑的几个主要问题:1)根据地震地质条件和历史地震震中分布合理地划分潜在震源的位置和大小;2)确定与当前地震活动相一致的震级—频度关系;3)选用能够反映不同区域地质构造的烈度衰减规律。 本文结合图表对地震危险性分析的结果进行了分析和讨论。

The seismic zoning work in north Hainandao,China was completed on the basis of scientific train of thoughts and analytic methods for seismic risk assessment.The seismic zoning map was worked out separately by use of earthquake intensity and peak value of horizontal acceleration of bedrock.As the map is mainly made for the use in land planning and earthquake resistant design of moderate-and small-sized engineering projects,the stan- dard of anti-seismic design takes the probability of exceedance as 10% within...

The seismic zoning work in north Hainandao,China was completed on the basis of scientific train of thoughts and analytic methods for seismic risk assessment.The seismic zoning map was worked out separately by use of earthquake intensity and peak value of horizontal acceleration of bedrock.As the map is mainly made for the use in land planning and earthquake resistant design of moderate-and small-sized engineering projects,the stan- dard of anti-seismic design takes the probability of exceedance as 10% within 50 years. The paper only gives a general review of the special research work on seismic zoning in north Hainandao,China.

琼北地震区划工作是根据地震危险性分析的科学思路和分析方法来完成的。区划图是分别用地震烈度和基岩水平加速度峰值来编制区划的。该区划图主要是为国土规划和中小型工程抗震设计所用,因此设防标准取50年内超越概率为10%。本文仅介绍了琼北地震区划专项研究工作的概况。

Gaozhou Reservoir is situated at the upper reaches of Jianjiang River, 26 km eastnorth of Gaozhou County town. It consists of Shigu Reservoir and Liangdc Reservoir which are linked by an artificial channel. Its construction began in 1958 and completed at July 1960. It is a big irrigation works, when the dam was built, the besic seismic intensity of Liangde is determined to be 5-6 degree and that of Shigu to be 7 degree by the concerned unit.

高州水库建于广东省鉴江上游,由两个水库经人工渠联通而成,总库容量约11亿立方米,两座土坝坝高分别为52.5米和43.2米。60年代初建库时未能认真考虑地震影响,蓄水后二十余年库区地震平静,但到1983年中,距北库主坝4公里左右开始出现区震活动,至翌年中约一年时间共发生≥1.0级地震一百余次,(最高震级ML3.6)。从而引起工程部门严重关切,为此委托我们进行三方面研究工作: 1.判断1983年以来地震的性质(是诱发地震抑或天然构造地震)。 根据我们的工作结果,此水库发生诱发地震的概率仅为1.012,初步判断这次震群为构造地震(小震群);即使从诱发地震考虑,其最大震级也不会超过4级,不会对大坝构成威胁。 2.地震基本烈度复核和地震危险性分析。 根据地震基本烈度的传统评定方法,两个坝址的基本烈度均为Ⅵ度。根据地震危险分析,以使用年限为100年,超越概率为1.1计,两个坝址的基本烈度也为Ⅵ度(相应的超越概率分别为0.1091和0.0921)。因此,无论用传统的确定性烈度评价方法或是地震危险性分析的方法,高州水库的基本烈度宜为Ⅵ度。 3.大坝抗震稳定性分析。 虽然地震基本烈度为Ⅵ度,但发生更大地...

高州水库建于广东省鉴江上游,由两个水库经人工渠联通而成,总库容量约11亿立方米,两座土坝坝高分别为52.5米和43.2米。60年代初建库时未能认真考虑地震影响,蓄水后二十余年库区地震平静,但到1983年中,距北库主坝4公里左右开始出现区震活动,至翌年中约一年时间共发生≥1.0级地震一百余次,(最高震级ML3.6)。从而引起工程部门严重关切,为此委托我们进行三方面研究工作: 1.判断1983年以来地震的性质(是诱发地震抑或天然构造地震)。 根据我们的工作结果,此水库发生诱发地震的概率仅为1.012,初步判断这次震群为构造地震(小震群);即使从诱发地震考虑,其最大震级也不会超过4级,不会对大坝构成威胁。 2.地震基本烈度复核和地震危险性分析。 根据地震基本烈度的传统评定方法,两个坝址的基本烈度均为Ⅵ度。根据地震危险分析,以使用年限为100年,超越概率为1.1计,两个坝址的基本烈度也为Ⅵ度(相应的超越概率分别为0.1091和0.0921)。因此,无论用传统的确定性烈度评价方法或是地震危险性分析的方法,高州水库的基本烈度宜为Ⅵ度。 3.大坝抗震稳定性分析。 虽然地震基本烈度为Ⅵ度,但发生更大地震的小概率事件也不是绝对不可能发生的,(例如坝受Ⅷ度影响的超越概率分别为0.0083和0.0055)因此必须了解大坝的最大抗震能力。

 
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