This results in conservative fortification and large investment against earthquakes. The third generation seismic division map (1990) gives the intensity under 10% exceeding probability in 50 years. The fourth generation seismic division map (2001) adopted the same exceeding probability.
It can compute the contribution of characterastic earthquakes and possion earthquakes to exceeding probability. Finally it synthetizes both of them as an exceeding probability of potential surface displacement of active fault segments associated with earthquakes.
Through the basic computation above, the following results can be acquired: (1)Any construction site' s exceeding probability on a fault segment or displacement value under some exceeding probability in a period of time.
In order to meet the needs of anti-seismic design,the time history curve s of bedrock accelerate (exceedance probability is 5% in 50 years,and 2% in 100 years) were compounded.
In the prediction,the probabilistic approach is used,i. e. probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is first performed based on the coordinates of 55 dams and 59 key embankment points,giving the exceedance probability of intensity I of these structures for a given period T;
then, the exceedance probability of different categories of damage for the structures within the predicted period is evaluated by the probabilistic equation,based on the above two results, and the category of damage of these structures is also estimated,taking 10% of the exceedance probability as the criterion.
(4) Forthe multiple potential seismic sources, after repeating step(3), we can obtain exceedance probability instudied area in given time Tyears by using statistical method. Therefore, this paper's method not onlykeeps characteristics of former seismic hazard analySis about potential seismic source zonation andearthquake occurrence law, but also absorbs research results of strong seismology about strong groundmotion.
The result suggest that the basic intensity is 7. 3 degree while the given period is 50 years and the probability of exceedance is 0. 1. Accordingly the coefficient ofmaximum seismic effect is 0. 158 which could be the basic parameter for seismic design.
The intensity corresponding to 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years are calculated by using elliptical attenuation of earthquake intensity of western China and mixed model, which includes NB conditional probabilistic model and NB cumulative probabilistic model for characteristic earthquakes, and Segment Poisson Process for medium earthquakes.
For example, under the consideration of quasi-periodical characteristic model, the PGA(peak ground acceleration) value with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years of this study is about 8% to 70% in difference to that of newly published Seismic Motion Map of China. Under the consideration of low frequency factor, the PGA value is about 8% to 9% lower.
Seismic parameters and time-distance curves of ground motion under 63%,10% and 3% probability of exceedance are set up by analysis of site seismic risk.
The general geological setting, earthquake generating sources,historical and instrumental seismicities in Pakistan are discussed in this paper. Based on these researches, an estimation of the peak ground acceleration for two cities Karachi and Hyderabad due to the maximum credible earthquakes of faults in 50 years is presented and a zoning map of probability of exceedance in 50 years is 140% is obtained by using of deterministic and probabilistic approaches.
②The latest regionalization map of Chi-na has not the meaning of pure engineering seismology relative to surpassing probability 10%in1950.③A variety of academic contendings before and after forming map may be esplained in a u-nified way.
These results show that expected magnitude and expected distance are related not only to geometry of potential source and magnitude but also to the intensity of the site with certain exceeding probability.
When calculating the occurrence rate of the affected intensity, the difference of the exceeding probability is used.
We have inspected the effects of parameters continuing variation on the result and the effects of exceeding probability and upper bound magnitude of potential source on the parameter sensitivity.
The relative interaction is not great than 10% with annual exceeding probability 2 × 10-3.
The exceeding probability of the map is 10% within 50 years.
For estimation algorithm optimization, we applied a minimax approach with the risk measure in the form of the exceedance probability of the estimate of a prescribed level by an error.
Quantiles of these distributions are estimated to characterize the levels of water flow and turbidity with a given exceedance probability.
In the latter case, the distribution censored by the non-exceedance probability threshold, FT, was considered.
The usually calculated exceedance probability curves of ground motion are reduced as cumulative probability curves of normal distribution on some assumptions in this paper.
The larger the uncertainty, the flatter the exceedance probability curve is.
The models of the bridges in detail including pounding between decks are developed in DRAIN-2DX and nonlinear time history analyses are conducted for a suite of ground motions having 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years in the CSUS.
And the regional sketch maps of the average varying values of intensity and the average relative varying values of peak acceleration with different probability of exceedance in 50 years are drawn in the Chinese mainland.
This paper discusses the relation between two-step seismic design and the standard of probability of exceedance, and the relation of three-levels seismic ground motion parameters given by probability method and comprehensive probability method.
The relative size relations of the ground motions with 2%, 10%, 63% probability of exceedance in 50 years, namely "large earthquake", "moderate earthquake", and "small earthquake", are discussed through a practical example of seismic hazard analysis.
Bayes estimate of the probability of exceedance of annual floods
Based on synthetic analysis of seismogeological data the limiting safe seismic motion (SL2) for the Wentuozi site has been obtained by the seismo-tectonic method, the probability method and the maximum historical earthquake method. The calculating results are 177 cm / s2,175cm / s2 and 89cm / s2 respectively. We take the maximum value among them as SL2(177cm / s2). For safety purpose 200 cm / s2 can be utilized as SL2 for Wentuozi site.The operating safe seismic motion (SL1) which can obtain from selecting larger...
Based on synthetic analysis of seismogeological data the limiting safe seismic motion (SL2) for the Wentuozi site has been obtained by the seismo-tectonic method, the probability method and the maximum historical earthquake method. The calculating results are 177 cm / s2,175cm / s2 and 89cm / s2 respectively. We take the maximum value among them as SL2(177cm / s2). For safety purpose 200 cm / s2 can be utilized as SL2 for Wentuozi site.The operating safe seismic motion (SL1) which can obtain from selecting larger between the probabilistic calculating result and the half of SL2 is 100cm / s2.
The Pearl Delta is prosperous in economy,dense in population and closely distributed with water network,and most of the region are situated in the area of basic seismic intensity Ⅶ.On the Pearl Delta,there are 55 earth dams and embankments in mediu of large scale with a total lenth of several hundred kilometers.It is required to carry out earthquake damage prediction for these earth structures. In the prediction,the probabilistic approach is used,i.e.probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is first performed based...
The Pearl Delta is prosperous in economy,dense in population and closely distributed with water network,and most of the region are situated in the area of basic seismic intensity Ⅶ.On the Pearl Delta,there are 55 earth dams and embankments in mediu of large scale with a total lenth of several hundred kilometers.It is required to carry out earthquake damage prediction for these earth structures. In the prediction,the probabilistic approach is used,i.e.probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is first performed based on the coordinates of 55 dams and 59 key embankment points,giving the exceedance probability of intensity I of these structures for a given period T;secondly,the probabilistic matrix of damage,showing the vulnerability of these structures is formulated, based on damage information of the structures in different intensity areas in several strong earthqudkes recently occurred in China; then, the exceedance probability of different categories of damage for the structures within the predicted period is evaluated by the probabilistic equation,based on the above two results, and the category of damage of these structures is also estimated,taking 10% of the exceedance probability as the criterion.
The general geological setting, earthquake generating sources,historical and instrumental seismicities in Pakistan are discussed in this paper. Based on these researches, an estimation of the peak ground acceleration for two cities Karachi and Hyderabad due to the maximum credible earthquakes of faults in 50 years is presented and a zoning map of probability of exceedance in 50 years is 140% is obtained by using of deterministic and probabilistic approaches.
超越概率
exceeding probability 
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