For the sake of the above problems in solution, this article makes the clay-center-wall dams of Dongzhou Reservoir as the typical model, doing primary works as follow:First, commence from the systemic analysis of earthquake characters of dam district, by the dam district earthquake analysis, and put forward the earthquake intensities, acceleration topmost values and the charts of earthquake designing reaction in the exceed-rates (63%, 10% and 3%)of the dam district in future 50 years.

The analysis of differential information comparative measure, which based on the theory of information entropy and the conformation of differential comparative series of high water level, shows that the aberrance of high water level happened in the years of 1974 and 1997. The former design high water level 9.81 meters of 1% in Cangqian, equals to the current value of 2% approximately, that will decrease the safety of Xiasha seawall overtopping accordingly.

According to calculation by fault fracture model, provided the transcendental probability is 0. 01 with consideration of design durability of major hydraulic structures being 100 years,design intensity of earthquake at Changzhou will be Ⅶ grade and maximum horrizontal acceleration a_(max)= 0. 12g.

The models of the bridges in detail including pounding between decks are developed in DRAIN-2DX and nonlinear time history analyses are conducted for a suite of ground motions having 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years in the CSUS.

And the regional sketch maps of the average varying values of intensity and the average relative varying values of peak acceleration with different probability of exceedance in 50 years are drawn in the Chinese mainland.

This paper discusses the relation between two-step seismic design and the standard of probability of exceedance, and the relation of three-levels seismic ground motion parameters given by probability method and comprehensive probability method.

The relative size relations of the ground motions with 2%, 10%, 63% probability of exceedance in 50 years, namely "large earthquake", "moderate earthquake", and "small earthquake", are discussed through a practical example of seismic hazard analysis.

Bayes estimate of the probability of exceedance of annual floods

In this paper probability analysis method is introduced in the study on earthquake risk for the dam of the project. Comparison with conventional deterministic method has been conducted. Results of the analysis indicate that the probability method has marked advantages because it has considered various safety standards. According to calculation by fault fracture model, provided the transcendental probability is 0. 01 with consideration of design durability of major hydraulic structures being 100 years,design...

In this paper probability analysis method is introduced in the study on earthquake risk for the dam of the project. Comparison with conventional deterministic method has been conducted. Results of the analysis indicate that the probability method has marked advantages because it has considered various safety standards. According to calculation by fault fracture model, provided the transcendental probability is 0. 01 with consideration of design durability of major hydraulic structures being 100 years,design intensity of earthquake at Changzhou will be Ⅶ grade and maximum horrizontal acceleration a_(max)= 0. 12g. The author recommends this design intensity to replace the basic intensity other than raising its protection standard for higher intensity.

Based on“The Seismic Risk Analysis of Jiayuguan City”,this paper anticipates the seismic disas-ter of Dacaotan earth dam. We calculate and analyse the dam’s nonlinear dynamic characteristics usingdynamic nonlinear finite element method,and give the possible pull-open regions on the dam' s surfaceand the possible plastic failure regions in the dam under l0%and 2%of exceedance probability duringaperiod of 50 years,andgive the acceleration time history and shear stress time history of several rep-resentative points....

Based on“The Seismic Risk Analysis of Jiayuguan City”,this paper anticipates the seismic disas-ter of Dacaotan earth dam. We calculate and analyse the dam’s nonlinear dynamic characteristics usingdynamic nonlinear finite element method,and give the possible pull-open regions on the dam' s surfaceand the possible plastic failure regions in the dam under l0%and 2%of exceedance probability duringaperiod of 50 years,andgive the acceleration time history and shear stress time history of several rep-resentative points. We also calculate and analyse the whole stability of the dam. Under the two ex-ceedance probabilities,this paper gives the whole safe reliability during a period of 50 years.

A case study was performed on the Kezier Dam site. Based on the principles of maximum contribution and structure consistency, an effective peak acceleration (EPA)-based scenario earthquake method was put forward by combination of the virtues of the probability and determinacy seismic hazard analysis methods. The scenario earthquake parameters of the Kezier Dam site, including the magnitude, epicentral distance and response spectrum, for a transcendental probability of 2% for 100 years were given. The response...

A case study was performed on the Kezier Dam site. Based on the principles of maximum contribution and structure consistency, an effective peak acceleration (EPA)-based scenario earthquake method was put forward by combination of the virtues of the probability and determinacy seismic hazard analysis methods. The scenario earthquake parameters of the Kezier Dam site, including the magnitude, epicentral distance and response spectrum, for a transcendental probability of 2% for 100 years were given. The response spectrum of scenario earthquake obtained was compared with the response spectrum prescribed by seismic design codes and the probability-consistent response spectrum, and the rationality of the scenario earthquake method was verified.