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集合模拟
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  ensemble simulation
     However, there are still some flaws in the ensemble system, the ensemble members are not diverse enough and the range of ensemble simulation is rather narrow, which not only lowers the accuracy of probability forecast of deviation but also leads to the actual forecast capability being inferior to the potential one.
     集合系统存在的不足之处在于 :集合成员间离散程度不足、集合模拟范围较狭窄 ,这使得离差对误差的实际预报能力低于潜在预报能力 ,也使集合概率预报的精度降低。
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  “集合模拟”译为未确定词的双语例句
     The results show similar presentation of the position of rainbands but for different simulation of meso-β rain cell.
     其中积云对流参数化方案分别采取5种不同的方案进行了计算,又对5种结果进行平均得到集合模拟结果。
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     To remove the uncertainty in predicting the area and the intensity of heavy rainfall,an ensemble mean was achieved by averaging the five simulated results.
     分析不同的模拟结果发现,对降水量的模拟,集合模拟结果更接近实况。
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     This indicates that the ensemble forecasting can remove the physical uncertainty and can be regarded as an efficient approach to enhance prediction.
     但对于β中尺度雨团的模拟具有不确定性,而不同参数化方案的集合模拟结果,无论是对雨带还是雨团的模拟都是比较成功的,这也说明集合预报可以消除物理过程的不确定性,是提高预报准确率的一条有效途径。
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  相似匹配句对
     A Modelling of Ensemble Prediction for Summer Precipitation
     汛期预测的集合预告模拟研究
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     The set
     集合(英文)
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     Statistical Simulation
     统计模拟
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     Simulation of distillation process
     精馏过程的模拟
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     Collective Nouns
     集合名词
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  ensemble simulation
North Atlantic Oscillation sensitivity to the El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation polarity in a large-ensemble simulation
      
Vapor-Liquid Equilibria of Silicon by the Gibbs Ensemble Simulation
      
As an application, equilibrium magnetic properties of anL×L square lattice Ising model are computed using the microcanonical ensemble simulation technique of Creutz, and the results are analyzed using the microcanonical ensemble finite-size scaling.
      
The results show that we can achieve accurate functional behavior for both standalone Stargate simulation and ensemble simulation of a Stargate and motes.
      
At last we compare the averaged skill of the ensemble simulation with that of the single-month simulation.
      
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The five physical processes used in the limited area model MM5 are disturbed to form a physical ensemble system of 19 members. The abnormal synoptic situation and heavy rain occurred in summer of 1998 in Eastern China was simulated with this physical ensemble system. The outputs from the ensemble simulation are analyzed using the three basic interpretational methods commonly used in the ensemble forecast; the consequence is that it is practicable to introduce ensemble technique in regional climate study. The...

The five physical processes used in the limited area model MM5 are disturbed to form a physical ensemble system of 19 members. The abnormal synoptic situation and heavy rain occurred in summer of 1998 in Eastern China was simulated with this physical ensemble system. The outputs from the ensemble simulation are analyzed using the three basic interpretational methods commonly used in the ensemble forecast; the consequence is that it is practicable to introduce ensemble technique in regional climate study. The ensemble technique appends new methods and additional information to regional climate simulation as well. However, there are still some flaws in the ensemble system, the ensemble members are not diverse enough and the range of ensemble simulation is rather narrow, which not only lowers the accuracy of probability forecast of deviation but also leads to the actual forecast capability being inferior to the potential one.

文中介绍了基于MM 5有限区域模式的物理集合构造方法 ,通过对模式中的 5种物理过程加以扰动、组合而得到一个有 19个成员的物理集合系统 ,并用其对 1998年夏季发生在中国东部地区的异常洪涝天气气候特征进行了模拟研究。以集合预报的 3种基本释用方法 ,对集合模拟产生的大量输出结果作了细致的分析 ,发现在区域气候模拟中 ,引入物理集合是可行的 ;它为区域气候数值研究提供了更多的手段和信息 ;集合系统存在的不足之处在于 :集合成员间离散程度不足、集合模拟范围较狭窄 ,这使得离差对误差的实际预报能力低于潜在预报能力 ,也使集合概率预报的精度降低。

A case of heavy rainfall in the Yangtze-Huaihe valley was studied with MM5-V3.In this numerical simulation,five convective parameterization schemes were adopted.The results show similar presentation of the position of rainbands but for different simulation of meso-β rain cell.To remove the uncertainty in predicting the area and the intensity of heavy rainfall,an ensemble mean was achieved by averaging the five simulated results.The ensemble mean,which has a good simulation of both rain belts and rain cell,is...

A case of heavy rainfall in the Yangtze-Huaihe valley was studied with MM5-V3.In this numerical simulation,five convective parameterization schemes were adopted.The results show similar presentation of the position of rainbands but for different simulation of meso-β rain cell.To remove the uncertainty in predicting the area and the intensity of heavy rainfall,an ensemble mean was achieved by averaging the five simulated results.The ensemble mean,which has a good simulation of both rain belts and rain cell,is most similar to the observation so far as the amount of precipitation is concerned.This indicates that the ensemble forecasting can remove the physical uncertainty and can be regarded as an efficient approach to enhance prediction.

用MM 5-V 3对江淮流域的一次暴雨过程进行数值模拟,为了消除单一的确定性预报在暴雨落区和强度方面的可信度不稳定。其中积云对流参数化方案分别采取5种不同的方案进行了计算,又对5种结果进行平均得到集合模拟结果。分析不同的模拟结果发现,对降水量的模拟,集合模拟结果更接近实况。不同的积云对流参数化方案对雨带位置的模拟效果相近。但对于β中尺度雨团的模拟具有不确定性,而不同参数化方案的集合模拟结果,无论是对雨带还是雨团的模拟都是比较成功的,这也说明集合预报可以消除物理过程的不确定性,是提高预报准确率的一条有效途径。

Because of its particular geographical condition,the climate of China vary from one region to another.Thus,studies of the spatial patterns of temperature variance in the context of global warming in the past one hundred years are very meaningful.Using the constructed and observational data, we obtained a series of surface temperature anomaly over Eastern China in four seasons during the period of 1880-2004.EOF analysis was applied on this sequence,and it is found that two basic spatial patterns,which are independent...

Because of its particular geographical condition,the climate of China vary from one region to another.Thus,studies of the spatial patterns of temperature variance in the context of global warming in the past one hundred years are very meaningful.Using the constructed and observational data, we obtained a series of surface temperature anomaly over Eastern China in four seasons during the period of 1880-2004.EOF analysis was applied on this sequence,and it is found that two basic spatial patterns,which are independent of seasonal cycle,dominate the variation of surface temperature in China.The two leading EOF eigenvectors are:(1) Eastern China experiences a consistent change;(2) Northeastern China exhibits an opposite change compared with the rest parts of China.Moreover,detailed analysis shows that the warming since the 1980s in China is chiefly caused by the persistently increasing in positive phase of EOF1 mode since 1976.The warming during the period of the 1920s-1940s can be mainly attributed to the positive phase of EOF-2 mode.Besides the diagnostic analysis,the results from an ensemble numerical simulation were also examined,using the same methods and approaches as above.It should be noted that the first mode can be captured by an Atmospheric General Circulation Model forced by observational sea surface temperature and sea ice data.However,this model failed to present the second mode except for boreal winter(DJF).Furthermore,because of the relatively steady performance of the two modes in winter,the circulation patterns in 500 hPa level for these two modes were investigated by composite analysis on both the observational and modeled data.The results from the two kinds of data show conformably that the positive phase of the first mode corresponds to the enhanced zonal circulation in winter,which leads to the warming in eastern China,while the negative phase corresponds to the circulation structure that the East Asia trough is deepening,which leads to the coherent cold in Eastern China.The second mode is affected by the large scale of high level anomaly centers.The positive phase corresponds to the situation that from northern East Asia to Aleutian is controlled by negative geopotential height anomaly and from East Asia to northern Pacific Ocean in middle latitude is covered by positive anomaly,resulting in the cold anomaly on surface in northeast and warm anomaly in the rest parts.The circulation pattern of the negative phase is almost in the opposite condition.

我国地域辽阔,气候复杂多变,在全球变暖的背景下研究中国近百年来的气温变化具有重要的意义。为此我们重建了中国东部71个站1880—2004年四季气温距平序列。通过EOF分析发现了中国气温变化的2种最基本的模态:东部一致变化和关内关外相反变化。这2种模态不随季节变化,而且在不同时期也是稳定的。通过研究这2种模态与变暖趋势的关系发现,20世纪80年代以来的变暖主要是由于第一模态在该时期持续的正位相增强造成的;而20世纪20~40年代的变暖主要是由于第二模态所呈现的正位相所造成的。此外,我们检验了这2种模态在大气环流模式(CAM)中的表现。结果表明:121年(模式中1880—2000年)的集合模拟在一定程度上可以重现第一模态的变化,而第二模态则仅在冬季表现明显。最后,以冬季为例,利用1880—2004年重建及观测的500 hPa高度场资料,通过合成分析进一步研究了这2种模态的环流机制:第一模态正位相对应纬向环流增强,表现在地面气温分布上为东部一致变暖。而负位相则对应东亚大槽加深,东部地区一致变冷。第二模态正位相对应的环流分布则为从东亚北部到阿留申为负距平,东亚到北太平洋中纬度为正距平;对应地面气温分布为关...

我国地域辽阔,气候复杂多变,在全球变暖的背景下研究中国近百年来的气温变化具有重要的意义。为此我们重建了中国东部71个站1880—2004年四季气温距平序列。通过EOF分析发现了中国气温变化的2种最基本的模态:东部一致变化和关内关外相反变化。这2种模态不随季节变化,而且在不同时期也是稳定的。通过研究这2种模态与变暖趋势的关系发现,20世纪80年代以来的变暖主要是由于第一模态在该时期持续的正位相增强造成的;而20世纪20~40年代的变暖主要是由于第二模态所呈现的正位相所造成的。此外,我们检验了这2种模态在大气环流模式(CAM)中的表现。结果表明:121年(模式中1880—2000年)的集合模拟在一定程度上可以重现第一模态的变化,而第二模态则仅在冬季表现明显。最后,以冬季为例,利用1880—2004年重建及观测的500 hPa高度场资料,通过合成分析进一步研究了这2种模态的环流机制:第一模态正位相对应纬向环流增强,表现在地面气温分布上为东部一致变暖。而负位相则对应东亚大槽加深,东部地区一致变冷。第二模态正位相对应的环流分布则为从东亚北部到阿留申为负距平,东亚到北太平洋中纬度为正距平;对应地面气温分布为关内变暖关外变冷。负位相时环流分布基本相反。这样的环流机制得到了模式研究的支持。

 
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