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集合预报技术     
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  ensemble forecast technique
     Application of ensemble forecast technique to rainstorm risk analysis
     集合预报技术在暴雨灾害风险分析中的应用
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     Considering the tremendous success of using the ensemble forecast technique to predict the synoptic scale systems, it is a reasonable choice to introduce the ensemble forecast technique to the storm scale systems.
     鉴于集合预报技术在中期数值预报中所取得的巨大成功,因此对风暴尺度系统引入集合预报技术就成为一个自然的选择。 本文在前人研究成果的基础上,对风暴尺度集合预报进行初步的试验研究。
短句来源
  ensemble forecast techniques
     The particularity and importance of the data assimilation and the possible application of ensemble forecast techniques are also stressed.
     还分析了高原地区资料同化的特殊性与集合预报技术的可能应用等。
短句来源
  ensemble forecasting techniques
     EXPERIMENT AND RESEARCH OF SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECASTING TECHNIQUES IN FORECASTING MEIYU PRECIPITATION
     短期集合预报技术在梅雨降水预报中的试验研究
短句来源
  “集合预报技术”译为未确定词的双语例句
     Multi-model Ensemble Forecast Technology with Analysis and Verification of the Results
     多模式集合预报技术及其分析与检验
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     A Technique for Systematic Approach in TC Track Forecasting
     台风路径超级集合预报技术
     Experiment and Research on Aggregative PredictionTechnology of Parameter Schemes of GRAPESModel for Predicting GuiZhou Precipitation
     GRAPES模式的参数化方案集合预报技术在贵州降水预报中的试验研究
     3) Both the two consensus terrain can do a positive effect in proving the model results, the reliable consensus terrain will do better than the average consensus terrain to improve the model results in the variation of the intensity of the storm rainfall.
     最后,结合集合预报技术,采用简单平均和可信度法得两种集合地形,并对多个个例进行了模拟试验,结果表明用集合方法得到的地形能够改善模式降水预报,其结果是稳定的,采取可信度法得到的地形比简单平均法得到的地形更能提高模式对强降水的模拟。
短句来源
     Compared to the beginning of EPS era in 1992 that just considered the uncertainties existed in the initial conditions, one of the most significant progresses made on ensemble techniques during the past few years, is that the model uncertainties have been taken into account, and then is the development of the multi model and multi analysis ensembles.
     近几年集合预报技术已从以前仅考虑初值的不确定性发展为也考虑模式的不确定性 ,进而发展了多模式 -多分析集合预报技术等。
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      ensemble technique
    A modified version of stochastic tunneling, a recently introduced global optimization technique, is introduced as a new generalized-ensemble technique and tested for a benchmark peptide, Met-enkephalin.
          
    A deforestation experiment is performed over the western Mediterranean, applying two different RCMs with differing domains and an ensemble technique to obtain a measure of their internal variability.
          
    The amplitude of atmospheric noise is controlled by use of the interactive ensemble technique.
          
    This interactive ensemble technique significantly reduces the SST variance throughout the North Pacific.
          
    Once this interference is reduced (i.e., applying the interactive ensemble technique), tropical-midlatitude SST teleconnections are easily detected.
          
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    The Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) in principle can be called the Probabilistic Prediction System (PPS) of which its ultimate goal is to provide the full probabilistic forecast for all variables. Compared to the beginning of EPS era in 1992 that just considered the uncertainties existed in the initial conditions, one of the most significant progresses made on ensemble techniques during the past few years, is that the model uncertainties have been taken into account, and then is the development of the multi...

    The Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) in principle can be called the Probabilistic Prediction System (PPS) of which its ultimate goal is to provide the full probabilistic forecast for all variables. Compared to the beginning of EPS era in 1992 that just considered the uncertainties existed in the initial conditions, one of the most significant progresses made on ensemble techniques during the past few years, is that the model uncertainties have been taken into account, and then is the development of the multi model and multi analysis ensembles.Some problems existed in the operational EPS such as the generation of initial perturbations, multi model ensembles, the application of ensemble products and its verifications are described, and the outlook of this perspective technique is exhibited.

    集合预报系统从原理上讲也可称之为概率预报系统 ,其最终目的是要提供所有大气变量的完全概率预报。近几年集合预报技术已从以前仅考虑初值的不确定性发展为也考虑模式的不确定性 ,进而发展了多模式 -多分析集合预报技术等。阐述了目前业务集合预报的一些问题 ,如扰动初值的生成、多模式集合预报、集合预报产品的应用、检验评价等 ,介绍了近几年集合预报的新的进展及该技术的未来发展趋势。

    Numerical weather prediction errors come from the initial conditions and model errors. Ensemble forecasting technique is an effective way to diminish the errors. Short range ensemble forecasting experiments are made for three precipitation cases during the 1999 Meiyu period in the East China area. The MM5 model is used as the experimental model configuration. Eight ensemble members are created by choosing four kinds of cumulus parameterization schemes and two kinds of PBL parameterization schemes. The four...

    Numerical weather prediction errors come from the initial conditions and model errors. Ensemble forecasting technique is an effective way to diminish the errors. Short range ensemble forecasting experiments are made for three precipitation cases during the 1999 Meiyu period in the East China area. The MM5 model is used as the experimental model configuration. Eight ensemble members are created by choosing four kinds of cumulus parameterization schemes and two kinds of PBL parameterization schemes. The four kinds of cumulus parameterization schemes are Anthes Kuo, Grell, Kain Fritsch and Betts Miller schemes. The two kinds of PBL parameterization schemes are MRF and Eta schemes. The results indicate that different ensemble members have different forecasting results. For the precipitation forecasting results, the influence of cumulus parameterization scheme is larger than the influence of the PBL parameterization scheme. For the bias score, most ensemble members have a "wet" bias. The bias score is larger for large precipitation than that for small precipitation. The effects of ensemble averaging increase the bias score for small precipitation and reduce the bias score for large precipitation. For different cases, the member who has the best precipitation forecasting results is not the same one. After ensemble averaging, stable precipitation forecasting results can be gotten. Also the objective and quantitative precipitation probability forecasts can be obtained from the ensemble forecasting.

    数值预报的误差来源于初始场和模式的误差 ,集合预报技术是减小这些误差的有效方法。该文以MM5模式作为试验模式框架 ,模式的积云参数化方案分别取Anthes Kuo、Grell、Kain Fritsch和Betts Miller方案 ,边界层参数化方案分别取MRF和Eta方案 ,通过组合 4种积云参数化方案和两种边界层参数化方案产生 8个集合成员 ,对 1 999年华东地区梅雨期间 3个降水个例进行 48h集合预报试验。结果显示不同集合成员的预报结果各不相同 ,积云参数化方案对降水的影响比边界层参数化方案对降水的影响大 ;不同集合成员预报降水的偏差也各不相同 ,大多存在湿偏差 ,量级小的降水的湿偏差程度比量级大的降水的湿偏差程度小 ;对于不同个例 ,各成员中预报效果相对较好的成员是不同的 ,集合平均后可以得到一个比较稳定的预报结果 ;从集合预报结果中还能得到客观化和定量化的降水概率预报 ,它能对可能发生的天气现象发出信号。

    The main scientific issues related to the numerical weather prediction (NWP) in the northwest China are reviewed in this paper. It is emphasized that in order to meet the increasing spatial resolution of NWP models and the requirements for the more accurate weather prediction, more attention should be paid to the accurate numerical depiction of the dynamic and heating effects, among which are the dynamic processes neglected in the low resolution models and the sub-grid inhomogeneity of the terrain, the multi...

    The main scientific issues related to the numerical weather prediction (NWP) in the northwest China are reviewed in this paper. It is emphasized that in order to meet the increasing spatial resolution of NWP models and the requirements for the more accurate weather prediction, more attention should be paid to the accurate numerical depiction of the dynamic and heating effects, among which are the dynamic processes neglected in the low resolution models and the sub-grid inhomogeneity of the terrain, the multi scale features of the terrain on the evolution of the weather system. The particularity and importance of the data assimilation and the possible application of ensemble forecast techniques are also stressed.

    分析了与我国西北地区数值预报相关的几个主要科学问题。指出随着数值预报模式分辨率的提高与预报的精细化,需要关注不同尺度地形对于大气的动力与热力作用的准确数值描述,包括过去被过滤掉的一些动力过程的描写的精度并解决好次网格地形的作用的参数化。还分析了高原地区资料同化的特殊性与集合预报技术的可能应用等。

     
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