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相似周
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  similar cycle
     In the first one smoothed monthly mean sunspot numbers of cycle 23 is obtained by "Similar Cycle" method and then smoothed monthly mean F10.7 flux is predicted according to statistical relationship between sunspot numbers and F10.7 flux.
     由“相似周”方法得到的第23周太阳黑子数月均平滑预测值来预测F10.7月均值和直接采用“相似周”方法对F10.7月均平滑值进行预测.
短句来源
     “SIMILAR CYCLE”METHOD AND A DISCUSSION OF PREDICTED MONTHLY SUNSPOT NUMBERS FOR SOLAR CYCLE 23
     “相似周”方法及对第23周太阳黑子数逐月值预测的讨论
短句来源
     In this paper, "Similar Cycle" method is introduced and smoothed monthly mean F10.7 flux of cycle 23 is predicted in two approaches and then the prediction is tested.
     引进“相似周”方法,通过两种方式对第23周太阳10.7cm辐射流量(E10.7)月均值进行预报和预报试验.
短句来源
     The remainder of the smoothed monthly sunspot numbers of cycle 23 is given by using the method, and a comparision of this mthod with the similar cycle method is given as well.
     利用已知的22个完整太阳活动周平滑月平均黑子数的记录,给出了对正在进行的太阳活动周发展趋势进行预测的方法,并应用于第23周,同时与其它相似周方法给出的预测结果进行了比较。
短句来源
     This can be proved by the second peak of observed F10.7 flux in cycle 23. 3) Using "Similar Cycle" method, the "Shape" of F10.7 flux in a solar cycle can be described well, which is difficult to get by other methods.
     (3)使用“相似周”预报方法,可以给出F10.7比较精细的剖面结构,这是其他普通预报方法很难做到的.
短句来源
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  相似匹配句对
     THIS WEEK
     新
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     Jay Chou
     杰伦
短句来源
     Similarity Systems Engineering
     相似系统工程
短句来源
     From Similarity to Innovation
     从相似到创新
短句来源
     Supplementation of vitamin C caused changes in MMC similar to those observed in the guinea pigs of 2-week group.
     加维生素C引起的变化与胆固醇喂养的2相似
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  similar cycle
sulcata (da Costa) from the same area both showed an essentially similar cycle of tissue weight changes, with evidence that spawning occurred during the autumn.
      
The best explanation for these proposed quasi-periodic comet showers involves the Sun's vertical oscillation through the galactic disk, which may have a similar cycle time between crossings of the galactic plane.
      
The limited7Be data appears to exhibit a similar cycle.
      
Ash levels evolved with a similar cycle, which allowed to estimate that the cycle thus observed was related to the alga biological activity and not to the releases.
      
It is also proposed that, in addition to the rare occurrence of somatic nuclear fusions, other processes may initiate the parasexual or some similar cycle.
      
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A conception of "Similar Cycle" and its application to predictions of monthlymean and smoothed monthly mean sunspot numbers are introduced in this paper.A test of the method for cycles 20 and 21 and a comparison of the observations withthe predicted monthly sunspot numbers of the first part of cycle 23 shows that themethod is in practice.

简单介绍了太阳黑子预报中“相似周”的概念及其应用,利用对第20、21周的模拟预报验证了该方法的可靠性,对第23周开始后逐月黑子数的实测值与由该方法给出的预测值进行了比较,表明该方法有其特点和应用价值.

In this paper, "Similar Cycle" method is introduced and smoothed monthly mean F10.7 flux of cycle 23 is predicted in two approaches and then the prediction is tested. In the first one smoothed monthly mean sunspot numbers of cycle 23 is obtained by "Similar Cycle" method and then smoothed monthly mean F10.7 flux is predicted according to statistical relationship between sunspot numbers and F10.7 flux. In the second approach the "Similar Cycle" method is directly applied to predict smoothed monthly mean F10.7...

In this paper, "Similar Cycle" method is introduced and smoothed monthly mean F10.7 flux of cycle 23 is predicted in two approaches and then the prediction is tested. In the first one smoothed monthly mean sunspot numbers of cycle 23 is obtained by "Similar Cycle" method and then smoothed monthly mean F10.7 flux is predicted according to statistical relationship between sunspot numbers and F10.7 flux. In the second approach the "Similar Cycle" method is directly applied to predict smoothed monthly mean F10.7 flux of cycle 23 by using historical data of past solar cycles. From the prediction, three results are obtained: 1) Both of these two prediction results are close to observations, both having double. 2) The second prediction is closer to the observation than the first one, which shows that F10.7 flux has similar varing trend with sunspot numbers, but still has its own local varing characters. This can be proved by the second peak of observed F10.7 flux in cycle 23. 3) Using "Similar Cycle" method, the "Shape" of F10.7 flux in a solar cycle can be described well, which is difficult to get by other methods.

引进“相似周”方法,通过两种方式对第23周太阳10.7cm辐射流量(E10.7)月均值进行预报和预报试验.由“相似周”方法得到的第23周太阳黑子数月均平滑预测值来预测F10.7月均值和直接采用“相似周”方法对F10.7月均平滑值进行预测.通过对两种预报试验结果分析,得到以下结论. (1)两种预测结果与实际都比较吻合,都得到双峰结构. (2)直接通过相似胤预测的F10.7的月均值结果较间接通过太阳黑子数的预测结果所推断的F10.7预测结果更接近实际观测结果. (3)使用“相似周”预报方法,可以给出F10.7比较精细的剖面结构,这是其他普通预报方法很难做到的.

In this paper, singular spectrum analysis (SSA) method was applied to 27-day solar 10.7cm radio flux forecast for the first time. In order to focus on the F10.7 prediction during the period of the low level solar activity, the test prediction range was chosen from April 30 to May 30, 2004 within the cycle 23 descendent phase. To ensure there were enough data to construct the sample series, both real time data and partial data in the cycle 20 descendent periods following the rule of similar cycle method were...

In this paper, singular spectrum analysis (SSA) method was applied to 27-day solar 10.7cm radio flux forecast for the first time. In order to focus on the F10.7 prediction during the period of the low level solar activity, the test prediction range was chosen from April 30 to May 30, 2004 within the cycle 23 descendent phase. To ensure there were enough data to construct the sample series, both real time data and partial data in the cycle 20 descendent periods following the rule of similar cycle method were chosen, in this way sampling number increased and at the same time, effects of high solar activity are kept away so to get more precise F10.7 forecast during the low solar activity. The forecasted results of these 31 days show that they mainly coincided with the general tendency of F10.7 vaviations. The averaged relative error of each 27-day forecast was about 10%. The total average relative error of the 31 days was 10.5%. The minimum average relative error was 4.8% and the maximum was 16.7% during the test forecast period. Comparing with American Air Force (AAF) forecast in the same periods, the total average relative error of SSA is less than AAF, the former was 11.3% and the latter was 14.6%. Furthermore, each average relative error of SSA was less than AAF except two days. But to the short-term forecast within one day to 12 days, the result of AAF was superior to SSA.

首次尝试利用信号处理技术奇异谱分析方法预测太阳活动低年未来27天太阳10.7cm射电流量.选取的预报试验时间段是2004年4月30日至5月30日,此试验期内太阳活动水平相对较低.在样本时间序列的构建上,吸取了相似周数据分析思路,采取的是23周实时观测数据与其相似周第20周下降年部分数据相结合的方式,既增加了样本长度又避开了太阳活动的活跃期.这31天的预报试验结果表明,大部分情况下,预报值基本上体现出F10.7的变化趋势,平均相对误差为10.5%;比同时期美国空军预测值的平均相对误差小,前者为11.3%,后者为14.6%;除两天外,SSA每一次27天的预报结果的平均相对误差比美国空军(AAF)的要小;对不同的时间提前量而言,AAF提前1天到提前12天的预报准确性较奇异谱分析方法要高,即AAF较短期的预报效果更好.

 
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