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    Analysis of Macroeconomic Situation in 2003 and Forecast of the Economic Trend and Policy Orientation in 2004
    2003年宏观形势分析与今年形势及政策走向预测
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    Along with the process of international financial integration and network economy quickening, our local commercial banks will face drastic market competitions.
    随着国际金融一体化和网络经济的发展,我国商业银行将面临更加激烈的市场竞争,今年底,外资银行将全面进入我国市场,金融开放大势所趋。
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    The issue whether we can deal with the operation risk is not only related with the subsistence and development of China's banking industry, but also with the safety of China's economy and finance.
    针对我国目前商业银行操作风险案件不断凸现以及今年年底银行业全面开放的要求,笔者认为能否有效解决我国商业银行操作风险问题,已经不仅关系到我国商业银行的生存与发展,还关系到我国的经济、金融安全。
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    UPS AND DOWNS OF THE U. S. DOLLAR
    今年以来西方外汇市场形势及美元汇价变动前景展望
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    Orientation of Reform of Investment and Financing Mechanism in Beijing in 2006
    今年北京市投融资体制改革取向
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The present exposition emphasizes that reforms have led to tremendous changesin the mechanism and underflying structure of China's economy, Changes Whichare responsible for the inconspicuousness of the correlation between credits andprices. Thus purely quantitative deflation, while incapable to curb the rising demandin urban economy, may seriously affect China's economic system in general andher rural development in particular. Therefore, according to the authors, the newmeasures aimed at deflation should focus...

The present exposition emphasizes that reforms have led to tremendous changesin the mechanism and underflying structure of China's economy, Changes Whichare responsible for the inconspicuousness of the correlation between credits andprices. Thus purely quantitative deflation, while incapable to curb the rising demandin urban economy, may seriously affect China's economic system in general andher rural development in particular. Therefore, according to the authors, the newmeasures aimed at deflation should focus on the freer supply of money and on theeffective control on interest rates so as to achieve improved effective supply, whichwould in turn stabilize the prices.

今年将再度实施紧缩货币政策。作者认为,改革后的中国经济机理、深层结构发生的巨大变化,使信贷与物价的对称关系不十分明显,因此,单纯的数量型紧缩不仅无法消除城市经济的需求膨胀,而且可能对我国经济特别是对农村经济的发展产生十分不利的影响。再度紧缩战略应采取放开货币供给、控制利率标的战略,通过增加有效供给达到抑制物价飘浮的目的。

Editor's note:The article was a work which Professor C.H.Fei one of the world's outstanding researchers in development economy, exclusively wrote for our magazine. In the expostion Professor Fei denies the applicability of Keynesian inflation theory to the developing countries.Basing himself on the pre-war theory of loanable funds,he formulates an inflation theory of loanable funds,he formulates an inflation theory to explain the price rises in the developing countries. According to Professor Fei,the underlying...

Editor's note:The article was a work which Professor C.H.Fei one of the world's outstanding researchers in development economy, exclusively wrote for our magazine. In the expostion Professor Fei denies the applicability of Keynesian inflation theory to the developing countries.Basing himself on the pre-war theory of loanable funds,he formulates an inflation theory of loanable funds,he formulates an inflation theory to explain the price rises in the developing countries. According to Professor Fei,the underlying cause of price rises in China lies in the public resistance, by way of accelerating cash spending, against the government attempt forcibly to increase the deposit by supplying money so as to maintain political stability.

今年年初,费景汉教授应邀来华作短期学术访问,在京期间,本刊记者采访了这位经济学家。费教授专为本刊题写了“推行新观念是使经济制度改革成功的先决条件”,并且向本刊提供了他的这篇近作。文中指出:凯恩斯的通货膨胀理论不适用于发展中国家,文章还以战前的可贷资金理论为基础,建立了一种用于解释发展中国家物价上涨问题的通货膨胀理论。他认为,中国物价上涨的根源在于,政府为了维持政局稳定下的增长,利用货币发行来强制储蓄,公众被迫加快货币支出速度以抵制政府的这种行为。

A forecast of the developing trend of Shanghai market in the second half of 1990 is made with an economic mathematical method for curve analysis, X-11 analysis and regression analysis. Some countermeasures and steps to meet the economic situation in Shanghai are also covered in this paper.

今年的上海市场运行作了十分详尽的分析,并运用多种方法对下半年上海市场进行了预测,特别具有决策参考价值,是一篇力作。上海市场对全国的影响极大,大家都不妨一读。

 
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