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     In SAR imagery segmentation,in order to obtain unsupervised segmentation,an efficient mixture multiscale autoregressive prediction(MMARP)model is applied to estimate the parameters of null hypothesis and alternative hypothesis in the GMLR.
     在SAR(synthetic aperture radar)图像分割应用背景中,利用混合多尺度自回归预报(mixture multiscale autoregressive prediction简称MMARP)模型估计预报图像的GMLR的原假设和备择假设参数,然后将判别准则应用到预报图像,从而对原SAR图像进行分割。
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     Discussion on Urban Air Quality Prediction(Diurnal) Operation System In Shanghai
     上海城市空气质量预报(日报)业务系统探讨
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     With the combination of the R 2LS algorithm [1] and the multi model and reinitialization techniques,this paper presents the multi model tracking and prediction(MMTP)algorithm for maneuvering targets.
     以文献 [1]所给严格的最小二乘递推 (R2 LS)算法为基础 ,并结合多模型和模型重新初始化技术 ,提出了一种机动目标的多模型跟踪与预报 (MMTP)算法 .
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     SATELLITE SOUNDING THERMAL INFRARED AT LANZHOU AND SHORT-IMPENDING TERM EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION(Ⅰ)
     兰州卫星热红外与短临地震预报(Ⅰ)
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     THE 35 DEGREES LINE IN CHINA AND LARGE EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION (Abstract)
     35度线与大震预报(英文)
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     Preview of exhibits at CIMT 2003(Ⅰ)
     CIMT 2003展品预报(一)
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     Preview of Exhihits at CIMT 2001 (1)
     CIMT2001展品预报(一)
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     Preview of Exhibits at CCMT 2002(Ⅰ)
     数控机床再聚盛会——CCMT 2002展品预报(一)
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     Preview of Exhibits at CCMT 2002( Ⅱ )
     数控机床再聚盛会——CCMT 2002展品预报(二)
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     Preview of domestic exhibits at CIMT 2003(Ⅱ)
     CIMT2003国内展品预报(二)
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     Forecasting volcanic eruptions
     预报火山喷发
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     Forecast of Sunstroke Index
     中暑指数预报
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     3) to enhance forest pest forecast;
     ( 3 )做好预测预报 ;
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Prediction for Two Processes and the Nehari Problem
      
We exploit an analogy between the trigonometric moment problem and prediction theory for a stationary stochastic process.
      
Prediction for two processes and the nehari problem
      
We exploit an analogy between the trigonometric moment problem and prediction theory for a stationary stochastic process.
      
However, whatever method is used, real industrial applications need to establish well-defined and widely accepted protocols for validating the models and defining their robustness, prediction power and applicability domain.
      
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本文根据在铅直方向積分了的涡度方程和一个经验式,用高空温压场的耩造表示地球转风涡度平流、熟成风涡度平流和温度平流对气压倾向的作用,从而得到预报气压变化的一些定性的规则。

As in general in all time service works, the problem is to obtain and keep an accurate time, to determine the corrections of standard clock and to transmit time signals. This present report is concerned only with the last two items. At Zi-Ka-Wei Observatory, radio method was introduced into time service in 1914. Some rigorous changes occured in 1926, a number of instruments were installed. Many of them are still in use. In 1940, the observatory began to transmit rhythmic signals twice a day. From then on until...

As in general in all time service works, the problem is to obtain and keep an accurate time, to determine the corrections of standard clock and to transmit time signals. This present report is concerned only with the last two items. At Zi-Ka-Wei Observatory, radio method was introduced into time service in 1914. Some rigorous changes occured in 1926, a number of instruments were installed. Many of them are still in use. In 1940, the observatory began to transmit rhythmic signals twice a day. From then on until December 1950, no further developments were made. The main instruments we had in 1950 were: a 80mm Prin transit with impersonal micrometer, two Leroy pendulums as standard clocks, three astronomical clocks and their slaves, equipments for receiving and recording time signals, etc. Since 1952, we began to make some improvements, especially on rhythmic signals. First, we converted a common clock into a "transmitting clock" to obtain 61 impulses in every minute and second by making use of photoelectric arrangement (Fig. 1), we succeeded to raise the accuracy of our signals. To improve signal accuracy further, we have to deal with various sources of errors which are conditioned by our equipments. The most important among these are: 1. error in prediction of corrections of the standard clocks, 2. error in the adjustment of the transmitting clock and 3. time lag in transmission. In consequence of last three-year's research, these errors are reasonably reduced. The first two are now±0~s.007 and ±0~s.005 respectively and the last is small. Accordingly, the deviation of time signals XSG has been supposed to be±0~s.01. However, this is not enough for the requirement. The more efforts are being made to bring further improvements. But as the requirements for signal accuracy is far above what the present installation can offer, some new equipments are ordered and they will joint in force with the old ones in the nearest future. Since February 1954, Zi-Ka-Wei Observatory has cooperated with the time service departments in Soviet Union. This has been helpful to our works in every way.

授時包括测時、守時和播時三个主要方面。在時號的发播中包含了预報主钟改正量的差误,工作钟的調節誤差和電路遲滯变化等三种誤差。如果使用石英钟及有關设备,这就可基本解决。各台站在其天文观测基础上订定的時號改正數也包含有偶然差和系统差,比較全面解決的只有蘇聯和国際時間局这两个标准系统。徐家匯觀象台授時工作歷史很久,作了一些工作,但抗戰以來,郎停滯不前,直到人民政府接办,才逐步在原有基礎上開展了改進。幾年来主要是改裝了一具工作钟,裝置光電设备以发播科学式時號,對時号精确度解决了秒距誤差和五分间誤差。工作钟的调节誤差被其本身品質所限,仍未解决,只是在加強值班工作之后,有了一定限度的提高,目前約為±0~s.005,在预报主钟改正量時,也有很大程度的不稳定,約為±0~s.007。所以時号的精确度在±0~s.01左右。要进一步提高质量,满足要求,有待於新設備的增添使用。在時号改正數方面,所存在的相當大的系统差,可採用蘇聯或国際時間局系統的改正數來避免。

This is a brief report of a preliminary survey of certain rain-bearing systems over China in later spring and summer. In the first part, a general description of the methods of analysis used in this survey is given. As the temperature and wind fields are weak, and the precipitation is heavy, smaller intervals for the isotherms and contours in the constant pressure surface and pseudo-equivalent potential instead of potential temperature in the cross section analysis are used.In the second part, there are descriptions...

This is a brief report of a preliminary survey of certain rain-bearing systems over China in later spring and summer. In the first part, a general description of the methods of analysis used in this survey is given. As the temperature and wind fields are weak, and the precipitation is heavy, smaller intervals for the isotherms and contours in the constant pressure surface and pseudo-equivalent potential instead of potential temperature in the cross section analysis are used.In the second part, there are descriptions of the structure and development of five frequently observed rain-bearing systems i.e. cold front, blocking high and cold vortex, monsoon heat low, warm front and typhoon.The last part consists of discussions of some points of view in synoptic meteorology in China. It is stated that the monsoon precipitation is various in intensity and duration according the large-scale flow patterns. The difference of moisture content in the middle troposphere as a criterion for the identification of equatorial or tropical maritime air mass is proved to be missleading. It is shown that the upper air moist content is high only within the raining region near the polar or equatorial front. To the south of the equatorial front within the so-called equatorial air mass, the moist content in the middle troposphere is as low as within the tropical maritime air mass. It is the convergence and lifting of the tropical air mass which releases the convective instability and induces the surface moist air rising to the middle troposphere. The phenomenon of the forward-inclination of the so-called North-West Trough based on the time cross-section of wind is proved to be a mistake by combining two systems into one trough. The terminology of shear line, and the correct application of synoptic models in weather analysis and forecas-ting are also discussed.

本文是一年来从事夏季降水天气初步普查的简单报告。第一节首先指出所用分析方法与一般国内所通用者,稍有不同。高空等压面分析,取20米作为等高缐间隔,2℃作为等温缐间隔。代替40米及5℃的间隔,以适应夏半年较弱的温度场与气压形势场,在剖面分析中以等假相当位温缐代替位温缐,与等温缐配合以适应降水天气的凝结降水过程。 第二节讨论了五种夏半年基本降水天气系统,即冷锋、阻塞高压与冷涡、季风热低压、 暖锋及有风的结构,并简单地叙述了演变过程。 第三节对某些天气概念提供一些批判性的讨论。根据现已增加的观测材料,论证季风与梅雨是多样性的,决定于大规模的温度场与流场特性,以高空湿度大小区分赤道气团与热带海洋气团,证明是不适当的,因为中国赤道锋降水区域以南,即在所谓南南季风的赤道气团中,中层大气仍是干燥的。降水区域内,中层对流层的大量水份,是由于辐合或抬升的作用,使潜势的对流不稳定性成为现实的不稳定性,而由下层空气上升带上去的。文中还论证了所谓西北槽槽缐前倾是将两个系统混作—个系统的不正确桔果。最后还讨论了切交缐及一般模型在天气分析预报中的应用与限制。

 
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