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效能检验
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    Forecast efficiency is inspected for 14 earthquakes of M ≥ 6 occurred in the North China from 1966 to 1977, the result indicates that the correlation of positive resultant stress and the successive strong earthquake is 75%.
    对华北地区1966~1977年发生的14次6级以上地震进行了预测效能检验,结果表明,合应力为正值的地区与后继强震的相关达75%。
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    Results indicate that the first scheme is more scientific, and average R-value of recent 13 years in China's continent is about 0.26. And then the predicted earthquake magnitude in seismic risk areas and the happened magnitude have also been taken into account, R-value of different magnitude levels have been calculated.
    结果表明第一种方案更为科学,13年来中国大陆地震预报效能检验平均的R值约为0.26。 进一步考虑不同危险区预报震级与实际发生地震震级间的差异,文中还分震级档计算了相应的R值评分。
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    Annual Earthquake Prediction and Scientific Evaluation Based on Repeating of Earthquake with M≥5.0 on the Chinese Continent
    基于中国大陆5级以上地震重复性的年度地震预测及其效能检验
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    The seismicity since 1970 in Ningxia and Qinghai was analysed using synthetical probability prediction method and the prediction ability for 1992 and 1993 in the areas was tested.
    本文叙述了地震活动的综合概率预报方法,并对宁夏及青海地区(35°00’-41°00’N,100°00’-107°40’E)1970年以来的地震活动资料进行了统计计算,对1992年-1993年该区地震活动进行了综合预报效能检验
短句来源
    Based on the review and summarization of precursory pattern in seismometry and prediction for Zhangbei Shangyi earthquake with M=6.2, the efficiency of prediction is examined and evaluated systematically for some prediction indexes of seismometry which are well reflected. The prediction indexes of the best three factors in seismometry prediction method are further determined and selected, which provides a quantitative reference basis in determining the three factors and prediction efficiency for various predicting indexes.
    对张北 6.2 级地震在测震学前兆图像、预测回顾及总结的基础上,对部分反映较好的测震学预测指标进行了比较系统的预报效能检验和评估,进一步确定和筛选出部分测震学预测方法的最佳三要素预测指标,为各预测指标的三要素界定和预测效能提供了定量的参考依据。
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Moderate strong earthquakes are main activity in eastern China continent.In this paper,the statistical characteristics of the pattern,the spatial distribution and time varation of groundwater level anomalies before the earthquakes in this region,and their relations to area,time of earthquake occurrence and magnitude are systematically analysed on the basis of former studies.In addition,the reliability and the prediction efficiency is inspected by an example of Datung-Yanggao moderate-strong earthquake series,October,1989....

Moderate strong earthquakes are main activity in eastern China continent.In this paper,the statistical characteristics of the pattern,the spatial distribution and time varation of groundwater level anomalies before the earthquakes in this region,and their relations to area,time of earthquake occurrence and magnitude are systematically analysed on the basis of former studies.In addition,the reliability and the prediction efficiency is inspected by an example of Datung-Yanggao moderate-strong earthquake series,October,1989.

中国大陆东部地区的地震活动以中强震为主。本文在前人工作的基础上用统计学的方法系统分析了该区中强震前地下水位动态异常的形态,时间与空间分布特征及其与地震三要素的关系,由此建立了地震预报的指标,并用1989年10月大同-阳高6.1级地震的实例进行了其信度与预报效能的检验。

The seismicity since 1970 in Ningxia and Qinghai was analysed using synthetical probability prediction method and the prediction ability for 1992 and 1993 in the areas was tested. Lastly,the seismic trend in the areas from 1994 to 1995 was discussed.

本文叙述了地震活动的综合概率预报方法,并对宁夏及青海地区(35°00’-41°00’N,100°00’-107°40’E)1970年以来的地震活动资料进行了统计计算,对1992年-1993年该区地震活动进行了综合预报效能检验。并据此对该区1994年-1995年的地震趋势做了估计。

Based on the review and summarization of precursory pattern in seismometry and prediction for Zhangbei Shangyi earthquake with M=6.2, the efficiency of prediction is examined and evaluated systematically for some prediction indexes of seismometry which are well reflected. The prediction indexes of the best three factors in seismometry prediction method are further determined and selected, which provides a quantitative reference basis in determining the three factors and prediction efficiency for various...

Based on the review and summarization of precursory pattern in seismometry and prediction for Zhangbei Shangyi earthquake with M=6.2, the efficiency of prediction is examined and evaluated systematically for some prediction indexes of seismometry which are well reflected. The prediction indexes of the best three factors in seismometry prediction method are further determined and selected, which provides a quantitative reference basis in determining the three factors and prediction efficiency for various predicting indexes. The examination and evaluation of prediction efficiency are made for various prediction methods systematically and objectively, the determination and selection of prediction methods for the prediction indexes of the best three factors are not only an important way that earthquake prediction and forecast have gradually advanced to scientific, objective, serious and practical direction, but also a necessary premise for comprehensive probability prediction combined organically by anomalies in multiple subjects with investigating focal physics as the basis and with seismogenic period as the evidence.

对张北 6.2 级地震在测震学前兆图像、预测回顾及总结的基础上,对部分反映较好的测震学预测指标进行了比较系统的预报效能检验和评估,进一步确定和筛选出部分测震学预测方法的最佳三要素预测指标,为各预测指标的三要素界定和预测效能提供了定量的参考依据。对各种预报方法进行比较系统和客观的预报效能检验和评估,确定和筛选预测方法的最佳三要素预测指标,这不仅是地震预测预报逐步向科学、客观、严谨和实用化方向迈进的重要途径,而且是探索以震源物理为基础和孕震阶段为依据的多学科异常有机结合的综合概率预测的必要前题。

 
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