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多模式集合预报
相关语句
  multi-model ensemble
     Multi-model Ensemble Forecast Technology with Analysis and Verification of the Results
     多模式集合预报技术及其分析与检验
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  相似匹配句对
     The set
     集合(英文)
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     Collective Nouns
     集合名词
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     Multi-model Ensemble Forecast Technology with Analysis and Verification of the Results
     多模式集合预报技术及其分析与检验
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     the rule of Integration synthesisMultimode style support rule;
     多模式支持原则;
短句来源
     Multi-Conditional Multi-Decision System
     多模式多决策系统
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  multi-model ensemble
The presence of occasional poor hindcasts affects the multi-model ensemble results substantially.
      
The skill assessment of a set of wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) seasonal predictions in a multi-model ensemble framework has been carried out.
      
The multi-model approach consists in merging the ensemble hindcasts of four atmospheric general circulation models forced with observed sea surface temperatures to create a multi-model ensemble.
      
Positive skill is found with both sets of indices, especially in the case of the multi-model ensemble.
      
Using the former definition, the multi-model ensemble shows statistically significant (at 5% level) positive skill in a variety of probabilistic scoring measures.
      
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The Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) in principle can be called the Probabilistic Prediction System (PPS) of which its ultimate goal is to provide the full probabilistic forecast for all variables. Compared to the beginning of EPS era in 1992 that just considered the uncertainties existed in the initial conditions, one of the most significant progresses made on ensemble techniques during the past few years, is that the model uncertainties have been taken into account, and then is the development of the multi...

The Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) in principle can be called the Probabilistic Prediction System (PPS) of which its ultimate goal is to provide the full probabilistic forecast for all variables. Compared to the beginning of EPS era in 1992 that just considered the uncertainties existed in the initial conditions, one of the most significant progresses made on ensemble techniques during the past few years, is that the model uncertainties have been taken into account, and then is the development of the multi model and multi analysis ensembles.Some problems existed in the operational EPS such as the generation of initial perturbations, multi model ensembles, the application of ensemble products and its verifications are described, and the outlook of this perspective technique is exhibited.

集合预报系统从原理上讲也可称之为概率预报系统 ,其最终目的是要提供所有大气变量的完全概率预报。近几年集合预报技术已从以前仅考虑初值的不确定性发展为也考虑模式的不确定性 ,进而发展了多模式 -多分析集合预报技术等。阐述了目前业务集合预报的一些问题 ,如扰动初值的生成、多模式集合预报、集合预报产品的应用、检验评价等 ,介绍了近几年集合预报的新的进展及该技术的未来发展趋势。

This paper briefly sums up the new development of the ensemble numerical prediction concerning the production method of the initial perturbation, the establishment of the numerical forecasting model, the abstraction and application of the output production,etc.It points out that BGM method is the better way to create the initial perturbation. The multi-model ensemble numerical prediction is becoming a trend. The ensemble Probabilistic forecasting is the best consequence of the numerical prediction,...

This paper briefly sums up the new development of the ensemble numerical prediction concerning the production method of the initial perturbation, the establishment of the numerical forecasting model, the abstraction and application of the output production,etc.It points out that BGM method is the better way to create the initial perturbation. The multi-model ensemble numerical prediction is becoming a trend. The ensemble Probabilistic forecasting is the best consequence of the numerical prediction, but a lot of works such as popularization and training should be done before its publication. The ensemble numerical prediction has been applying in the quasi-operation forecasting and operation forecasting by more and more countries and regions. The ensemble numerical prediction is likely to become a new mainstream method of weather prediction.

从初值扰动的生成方法、数值预报模式的建立、输出产品的提炼应用等方面简要概括了集合预报的最新进展。指出,运用BGM法生成初值扰动效果较好,多模式集合预报正成为天气预报的发展趋势;集合概率预报是集合预报的最佳结果,但发布还需要做大量的普及推广和培训工作;集合预报正在被越来越多的国家投入准业务运行和业务运行,有可能成为新的主流预报方式。

 
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