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科技发展规划
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    Scientifically forecasting GERD and GERD/GDP in the future is the important part of formulating S&T development programme.
    对未来R&D经费总量及其与GDP比值进行科学的预测是制定科技发展规划的重要组成部分。
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In accordance with the model of estimating the professionals of the National

本文根据全国人才规划会议拥有量预测模型,针对专门人才的不同补充方式,推导了两种具体的计算方法.并以此方法对苏州市丝绸行业专门人才的补充量进行了计算,通过三种不同方案的计算比较,对苏州市丝绸行业的人才补充量和82~90年的专门人才队伍的专业结构和年龄结构进行了研究分析.可供有关单位搞人才预测和制定教育或科技发展规划时参考.

Scientifically forecasting GERD and GERD/GDP in the future is the important part of formulating S&T development programme. For quite long time, the countries throughout the world mainly adopt subjective judging method based on qualitative analysis to proceed to forecast. To make the forecast more scientific and dependable, the paper puts forward a quantitative forecast method. According to the analysis of relevant time sequence data in OECD countries and our country, the paper finds out the influencing factors...

Scientifically forecasting GERD and GERD/GDP in the future is the important part of formulating S&T development programme. For quite long time, the countries throughout the world mainly adopt subjective judging method based on qualitative analysis to proceed to forecast. To make the forecast more scientific and dependable, the paper puts forward a quantitative forecast method. According to the analysis of relevant time sequence data in OECD countries and our country, the paper finds out the influencing factors of GERD/GDP, determines the quantitative relations between GERD/GDP and their influencing factors, establishes forecast equations and forecasts GERD, GERD/GDP and GERD structure in 2005, 2010 and 2020.

对未来R&D经费总量及其与GDP比值进行科学的预测是制定科技发展规划的重要组成部分。长期以来 ,世界各国主要还是采用基于定性分析的主观判断方法进行预测。为提高预测的科学性和可靠性 ,本文提出一种定量的预测方法 ,根据对OECD国家和我国相关时序数据的分析 ,通过确定影响因素、提出增长与影响因素间的定量关系以及影响因素的变化趋势 ,建立了预测方程 ,并对我国 2 0 0 5、2 0 10、2 0 2 0年的R&D经费及与GDP比值以及主要的结构数据进行了预测。

Scientifically forecasting R&D devotion and it's intensity in the future is the important part of formulating S&T development programme.For quite long time,the countries throughout the world mainly adopt subjective judging method based on qualitative analysis to forecast.To make the forecast more scientific and dependable,it puts forward a quantitative forecast method.MGM(1,n)(multi-variable grey model),which is an extension of the GM(1,1) model for n-variable,is introduced to solve the problem and using it...

Scientifically forecasting R&D devotion and it's intensity in the future is the important part of formulating S&T development programme.For quite long time,the countries throughout the world mainly adopt subjective judging method based on qualitative analysis to forecast.To make the forecast more scientific and dependable,it puts forward a quantitative forecast method.MGM(1,n)(multi-variable grey model),which is an extension of the GM(1,1) model for n-variable,is introduced to solve the problem and using it to analysis the interrelation between R&D and GDP formed in a complexity system tianjin city's correlation data was analysed and long-term forecasting was made.The conclusion can offer beneficial advice to work out S&T development programming of Tianjin.

对未来R&D经费总量及其与GDP比值进行科学的预测是制定科技发展规划的重要组成部分.提出一种定量分析预测方法———利用多变量灰色MGM(1,n)模型(mu lti-variab le grey model),研究R&D投入与GDP所形成的复杂系统变量之间的相互影响关系,对天津市相关数据资料进行实证分析与中长期预测,为政府相关部门制订科学的科技发展规划提供有益的指导作用.

 
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