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evidence theory
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  evidence theory
Rulegraphs check this compatibility between unary and binary rules by combining evidence theory with graph theory.
      
Formalisms such as probability theory and Dempster-Shafer evidence theory have proposed specific forms for these operators.
      
Both techniques rely on the mathematical tools of evidence theory, which are customized here for application to total uncertainty in track forecasts.
      
Application of evidence theory to quantify uncertainty in hurricane/typhoon track forecasts
      
This essay investigates this connection in detail, pointing to the usefulness of evidence theory to formalise and extend Shackle's decision theory.
      
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This paper is to study the rule of combination in Evidence Theory. Some problems existing in Dempster' s rule of combination are discussed. Based on the theory of Entropy and the Degree of Disagreement Function which measures the information discrepancy, some new rules for combining different mass functions are proposed. When faced with great Dempster - conflicts of different evidences, we could get reasonable results by using these new rules. An application of our new rules of combination to the...

This paper is to study the rule of combination in Evidence Theory. Some problems existing in Dempster' s rule of combination are discussed. Based on the theory of Entropy and the Degree of Disagreement Function which measures the information discrepancy, some new rules for combining different mass functions are proposed. When faced with great Dempster - conflicts of different evidences, we could get reasonable results by using these new rules. An application of our new rules of combination to the theory of decision-making is presented.

本文对证据推理中Dempster融合规则存在的一些问题进行了讨论,利用信息论中的熵函数和度量信息离散度的FDOD函数提出了新的信息融合规则,改进了Dempster规则,在不同证据冲突较大的不合理结果。此外,文章还介绍了如何将新的融合规则应用于决策系统。

Knowledge fusion is a new concept proposed at the end of last century.The fused knowledge is referred as method,experience and idea as well as data and information.A new knowledge fusion method based on D-S(Dempster-Shafer) evidence theory was presented and applied to corporate failure prediction.There were three steps in the method: mathematic modeling,knowledge fusing and discriminating.The implementation of these steps was developed.The information entropy theory was employed to determine the...

Knowledge fusion is a new concept proposed at the end of last century.The fused knowledge is referred as method,experience and idea as well as data and information.A new knowledge fusion method based on D-S(Dempster-Shafer) evidence theory was presented and applied to corporate failure prediction.There were three steps in the method: mathematic modeling,knowledge fusing and discriminating.The implementation of these steps was developed.The information entropy theory was employed to determine the basic probability assignment of knowledge.The knowledge fusing equation was induced following D-S evidence combination rule.A concise discriminating regulation was proposed to analyze the fusion result.The data of two listed companies was used to show the validity of the presented method.The results indicate this method can reduce the uncertainty of the prediction model effectively.

知识融合是上世纪末提出的一种新概念,它不但能够融合数据、信息,而且还可对方法、经验,甚至人的思想进行融合.针对企业失败预警问题,提出了一种基于D-S(Dempster-Shafer)证据理论的新的知识融合方法,该方法主要包括数学建模、知识融合以及结果分析与决策三个步骤.给出了基于D-S证据理论知识融合方法的具体实现:提出了一种数学建模方法,将信息熵的概念引入到基础概率分配的确定中;针对企业失败预警问题,推导了基于D-S证据组合理论的知识融合公式;提出了一种简洁的融合结果分析与决策方法.最后通过对具有典型企业风险特性的两个上市公司进行分析和处理,验证提出的基于D-S证据理论的知识融合方法的有效性.结果表明,该方法能有效降低企业失败预警方法的不确定性.

There are many shortcomings in the analysis of stock investment based on only one technical method for too many uncertainties exist in the stock market and the stock market itself changes constantly.In this paper,using several different methods instead of a single method is suggested.How to combine the results of different methods is really essential for different methods may get different results.So the Dempster-Shafer's evidence theory is introduced to combine these results.This method regards different...

There are many shortcomings in the analysis of stock investment based on only one technical method for too many uncertainties exist in the stock market and the stock market itself changes constantly.In this paper,using several different methods instead of a single method is suggested.How to combine the results of different methods is really essential for different methods may get different results.So the Dempster-Shafer's evidence theory is introduced to combine these results.This method regards different methods as different evidence resources and the combined result is more scientific and reasonable.

文章基于证券市场的多变性和存在诸多不确定性的客观事实,分析了单一证券投资技术方法的弊端,建议用多种分析方法预测证券未来的走势;引入证据理论来处理不同投资分析方法结论存在的差异;将不同的技术分析方法作为独立的证据源,用Dempster-Shafer合成法则对各种方法的结果予以融合,提高了投资分析结果的可靠性和科学性。

 
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