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Within the "German Research Network Natural Disasters" project, the working group on "Flood Risk Analysis" investigated the complete flood disaster chain from the triggering event down to its various consequences.


Coastal Flood Risk Analysis Using Landsat7 ETM+ Imagery and SRTM DEM: A Case Study of Izmir, Turkey


The assumption behind traditional flood risk analysis is that climate is stationary, but anthropogenic climate change and better knowledge of interdecadal climate variability challenge the validity of the assumption.


Samplingbased flood risk analysis for fluvial dike systems


Therefore, two types of models for flood risk analysis are derived on the basis of clustering stochastic point process theory in this paper.

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 The runoff process is an annually periodic and nonstationary stochastic process, so a mixed stochastic model of combining the stationary model and the seasonal model is proposed for the runoff simulation in this paper. Differing from those methodologies with individual models, which keep implicitly the nonstationarity of the runoff process merely through actually observed streamflow records, the developed methodology expresses the non stationarity explicitly in terms of the mixed model. The mixed model can... The runoff process is an annually periodic and nonstationary stochastic process, so a mixed stochastic model of combining the stationary model and the seasonal model is proposed for the runoff simulation in this paper. Differing from those methodologies with individual models, which keep implicitly the nonstationarity of the runoff process merely through actually observed streamflow records, the developed methodology expresses the non stationarity explicitly in terms of the mixed model. The mixed model can be applied in stochastic simulations of the runoff processes with different time intervals. It is clear in conception, convenient for application and easy for numerical implementation.The simulated inflow generated by this mixed model are adopted in the assessment of the operation schemes of Miyun reservoir in North China and the corresponding flood risk analysis of the downstream region,which demonstrates the validness of the model and to illustrates the applicability of the methodology in this paper.  鉴于径流过程是以年为周期的非平稳随机过程,本文结合径流随机模拟的平稳随机模型和季节性随机模型,建立了一种径流过程随机模拟的混合模型。与以前的方法不同,该模型将径流过程的非平稳性用模型显式地予以描述,可用于对时间聚集水平不同的径流过程的模拟,而且概念清晰,灵活简便,易于数值实现。以密云水库兴利防洪调度综合运用方案的比较择优以及下游河道防洪风险分析问题作为应用实例,说明了这种混合模型及其建模方案的合理性和广泛适用性  Based on a general definition of flood risk,similarities and differences in the flood risk analysis method between the Netherlands and China are described in this paper.Studied aspects include the determination of flooding probability,flood consequences,flood risk indexes and flood prevention economy optimization.Features of each method and causes of the differences between two countries are primarily analyzed.In the case study of the Anqing dike,the flood risk analysis methods... Based on a general definition of flood risk,similarities and differences in the flood risk analysis method between the Netherlands and China are described in this paper.Studied aspects include the determination of flooding probability,flood consequences,flood risk indexes and flood prevention economy optimization.Features of each method and causes of the differences between two countries are primarily analyzed.In the case study of the Anqing dike,the flood risk analysis methods in the Netherlands and China are investigated respectively,and a combination of these two methods is proposed.The result indicates that the method combining structural failure probability of dike and hydrological risk probability of flood together to determine the flood hazard agrees well with Chinese flood conditions.More uncertainties are considered in determination of flood risk in this new method.It is suggested to apply this method to the further flood risk analysis in China.  基于洪水风险的定义,从洪灾发生概率、洪灾后果评估、风险评价指标和防洪标准经济优化决策原则等方面阐述了中荷两国在洪水风险分析研究方面的异同,初步分析了存在差别的原因以及两种方法的特点。在分别应用中国和荷兰现有风险评估方法分析安庆市堤防圈的洪水风险的基础上,探讨了将两国的风险分析方法进行整合的思路。算例表明,将堤防的工程风险与洪水本身出现的水文风险相结合,并考虑在不同洪水位下损失的差异的方法是与洪灾发生机理相符,综合考虑了各种不确定因素的、切合我国洪灾特点的一种值得进一步深入研究的新方法。  The nonidentity of the rainstormflood eigenvalues in the probability and disadvantage of currently monovariant method of the flood risk analysis are analyzed.Based on probability theory about combined event,by dint of two special events such as"absolute correlation"and"interindependence",the bivariate weighted compound probability model is established by means of fuzzy set theory.In the present model,not only the complex effects for flood peak and flood total discharge to the flood... The nonidentity of the rainstormflood eigenvalues in the probability and disadvantage of currently monovariant method of the flood risk analysis are analyzed.Based on probability theory about combined event,by dint of two special events such as"absolute correlation"and"interindependence",the bivariate weighted compound probability model is established by means of fuzzy set theory.In the present model,not only the complex effects for flood peak and flood total discharge to the flood risk are considered,but also the problem of researching conditional probability distribution is avoided.A practical method that reasonably estimate flood risk with limited flood information is provided.  分析了洪水特征值的不同频率性和现行的单因素防洪风险分析方法的片面性。从组合事件的概率理论出发,利用“完全相关”与“相互独立”两种特殊情况,采用模糊集理论,建立了二参数加权组合概率模型。模型中不仅考虑了洪峰和洪量对洪水风险的共同作用,而且避免了确定条件概率分布的问题,为在现有的洪水资料的情况下,合理估计防洪风险及进行防洪水利计算,提供了一种简单可操作性方法。  
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