|
With the method of dynamic programming,two spatial variables,the expected utility andthe Probability of success for each offense,are used to model the criminal' s lacation choicesin urban areas. The modeling results show that a eriminal optimizes his crime location ac-cording to the expeeted utility and the probability of success during his crime planned period,A criminal usually commits his first offence in the district which has the highest probability of success but a lower expected utllity ,and commits... With the method of dynamic programming,two spatial variables,the expected utility andthe Probability of success for each offense,are used to model the criminal' s lacation choicesin urban areas. The modeling results show that a eriminal optimizes his crime location ac-cording to the expeeted utility and the probability of success during his crime planned period,A criminal usually commits his first offence in the district which has the highest probability of success but a lower expected utllity ,and commits his last offence in the district where the expected utility is the highest and the success probability is lower.If a loeation has both a higher expeeted utility and a higher probability of success,the criminal will commit all his of-feese in this place.The model also suggests that crime prevention measures should be adopt-ed in the light of loeal conditons.“Coering”measures,such as patolling,should be taken in the poor residential districts or delinquency districts,while more sophisticated and ad-vanced measures should be introduced in the richer districts or the districts where career crimimals haunt. 本文以犯罪期望效用和成功概率为空间变量,用数学动态规划方法建立模型模拟罪犯在城市内选择犯罪区位的一般规律。模拟结果显示:罪犯在其犯罪规划期间内依据每次犯罪的期望收益和成功的概率来优化选择犯罪区位。罪犯总是在其感觉成功概率最高但期望效用较低的地区实施第一次犯罪,而其规划期间内的最后一次犯罪则发生在期望效用最高但成功概率较低的地区。如果一个地区的犯罪期望效用和成功的概率均较高,罪犯将集中在这一地区作案。模型所揭示的犯罪行为规律为城市犯罪的空间防范提供了有益的启示,即制定犯罪防治措施应因地制宜,在较贫穷的居住区或少年犯罪区应采取区域巡逻一类的“覆盖式”的防范措施;在较富裕或职业罪犯出没的地区应采取较复杂、严密和先进的技术防范措施。 The problem of juvenile delinquency,which is a social problem, attracts the attention of the whole world. The article analyses the psychological factors of juvenile delinquency from the following five aspects: the juvenile independence tendency and cognitive ability, particular condition and environmental influence, subjective factors, characteristics of individual structure and motives. The article raises six education approaches for taking precautions against and reducing juvenile delinquency... The problem of juvenile delinquency,which is a social problem, attracts the attention of the whole world. The article analyses the psychological factors of juvenile delinquency from the following five aspects: the juvenile independence tendency and cognitive ability, particular condition and environmental influence, subjective factors, characteristics of individual structure and motives. The article raises six education approaches for taking precautions against and reducing juvenile delinquency to the greatest extent. 青少年犯罪问题是全世界普遍关注的社会问题。该文从青少年独立性意向和认识能力、具体条件和环境影响、主观因素、个性结构特征、动机五个方面 ,分析了青少年犯罪的心理因素 ,最后就如何最大限度地预防和减少青少年犯罪 ,提出了六个方面的教育方法 To "educate, redeem, and reclaim" juvenile offenders is a consistent criminal policy in China. However, in practice, it is not completely carried out. A detailed criminal policy dealing with delinquency needs to be made. It should include the following subjects: to use minimized quantity of delinquency; to limit application of compulsory measure such as arrest; to make full use of nol pros system; to avoid imprisonment as much as possible and use the experience of other countries for reference... To "educate, redeem, and reclaim" juvenile offenders is a consistent criminal policy in China. However, in practice, it is not completely carried out. A detailed criminal policy dealing with delinquency needs to be made. It should include the following subjects: to use minimized quantity of delinquency; to limit application of compulsory measure such as arrest; to make full use of nol pros system; to avoid imprisonment as much as possible and use the experience of other countries for reference in respect of probational measures. 对未成年犯坚持“教育、挽救、感化”是我国的一贯刑事政策,但在实际执行中存在着偏差。应当制订具体的处理未成年人犯罪的刑事政策,其内容包括:对未成年人犯罪实行最小量化;限制逮捕等强制措施的适用;充分运用不起诉制度;应最大限度避免监禁,借鉴国外的缓刑措施等。
|