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In this paper, correlation decree of the nine strong events versus the precursory data of Haicheng earthquake has been calculated by using correlated space theory of grey system, while fuzzy cluster analysis is clone on the 7 event data, obtaining much more consistent results. At the same time, the data requirements by the two methods are compred. In order to study effects by different factors, calculation of correlation degree between source parameters of the nine strong events and their aftershock sequence... In this paper, correlation decree of the nine strong events versus the precursory data of Haicheng earthquake has been calculated by using correlated space theory of grey system, while fuzzy cluster analysis is clone on the 7 event data, obtaining much more consistent results. At the same time, the data requirements by the two methods are compred. In order to study effects by different factors, calculation of correlation degree between source parameters of the nine strong events and their aftershock sequence data is also made. The results indicate that correlation degree and correlation sequence of the precursory data, source parameters and aftershock sequence of the same event might be some different. Possible reasons that cause such differences are discusst.d in the paper,suggesting that as for the better predicted Haicheng and Songpan earthquakes, both are characterizing as small correlation degree on the precursory data, being the most late correlation sequence of each event. There are also two types of varied results from fuzzy cluster analysis, indicating that they are two different types of precursory data in earthquake prediction, 本文用灰色系统的关联空间理论计算了九次强震对海城地震的前兆数据的关联度值,并对七次强震的前兆数据进行了模糊聚类分析,得到了较为一致的结果。并用两种方法对数据的要求进行了比较。为了研究各因素的效应,对九次强震的震源参数和余震序列数值的关联度以一并计算出来,结果显示出同一地震的前兆数据、震源参数和余震序列的关联度和关联序都可有一定差异。文中讨论了形成这种差异的可能原因,并得出进行过较好预报的海城地震和松潘地震二者在前兆数据上关联度小,为各次地震中关联序最后者,模糊聚类的结果也是不同的两类,从而说明了这是两次不同类型的前兆数列的地震预报。 Using the grey system theory in this paper, the predictive model of strong earthquake (M≥7.0) has been found in north China seismic area:According to the prediction above mentioned, the next strong earthquake will take place in north China around 1993. 本文应用灰色系统理论,建立了华北地震区强震(M≥7.0)的预测模型: X_(k+1)~((1))=379.201e~(0.1234k)-359.201据比预测,华北地区下一次强震将在1993年前后发生。 This paper presents the findings of an investigation by the Delphi Me- thod and the process of summarizing experts'opinions by making use of Grey systems theory.The investigation was made to fifty-three experts aimed in finding out the main factors in the formtion of torrential rain debris Slow.The Grey statistics method is used to summarize the experts'opinions. As a supplement,the Grey relational grade ana]ysis is made on the data ob- tained from surveying and measuring.Based upon the conclusion... This paper presents the findings of an investigation by the Delphi Me- thod and the process of summarizing experts'opinions by making use of Grey systems theory.The investigation was made to fifty-three experts aimed in finding out the main factors in the formtion of torrential rain debris Slow.The Grey statistics method is used to summarize the experts'opinions. As a supplement,the Grey relational grade ana]ysis is made on the data ob- tained from surveying and measuring.Based upon the conclusion from these studies,the forming of torrential rain debris flow is imputed toeleven main factors classified into three groups according to their importance. 本文介绍试用德尔菲法确定降雨泥石流形成要素的调查结果和用灰色系统理论对专家意见进行归纳的过程。这次调查,共征询了53名专家的意见。在处理调查结果时,应用了灰色统计法对专家们的意见进行归纳,并利用对实测资料进行灰色关联度分析所得结论作为决策参考依据。最后确定了11个泥石流形成要素,并根据其重要性分成三类。
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