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forecast
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  预报
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The Fundamental Experiments of Red Tide Chemical Forecast
      
The fundamental experimental outcome above may provide a new clue for red tide chemical forecast by inspecting the NO change.
      
Forecast method for used number of parts and components based on complex network
      
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In this paper, the equations of motion of vortices in baroclinic atmosphere are derived in the light of classical hydrodynamics. Six factors determining the motion of vortices are discussed. Physical interpretation and some comments are given to the well-known steering principle. Application of these equations in the forecasting of the motion of typhoons are illustrated by three examples, and the results are better or as well as those of the synoptic forecasts. Possibility and limitation of their application...

In this paper, the equations of motion of vortices in baroclinic atmosphere are derived in the light of classical hydrodynamics. Six factors determining the motion of vortices are discussed. Physical interpretation and some comments are given to the well-known steering principle. Application of these equations in the forecasting of the motion of typhoons are illustrated by three examples, and the results are better or as well as those of the synoptic forecasts. Possibility and limitation of their application to the motion of middle-latitude vortices are also discussed.In the appendix, there are critical discussions of the role of the internal forces and the calculation of the amplitude and period of the meandering motion of typhoons in straight steering current.

本文根据流体力学的基本理论,得出了斜压大气中的涡旋运动方程。并讨论了决定涡旋运动的六个基本因子。对日常应用的高空引导观念给予比较明确的物理解释并加以修正。文中对这方程在预报台风移动的应用作了初步说明,也附带简单地谈到了中纬度系统的移动。在附录中还指出了关于系统内力作用的误解,并简单地讨论了台风运动的摆动周期和振幅。

Some 24 and 48-hr numerical forecasts for 500 mb topography over a part of Asiaare prepared by graphical method with a quasi-geostrophic two-parameter model.Theresult is in general rather good,but for the case of blocking,the negative height-change centersouth to the position of the blocking high is not forecasted and thus the blocking high doesnot appear on our prognostic chart.This is due to the neglection of the 500 mb divergence whichis of importance for the major development of weather systems on...

Some 24 and 48-hr numerical forecasts for 500 mb topography over a part of Asiaare prepared by graphical method with a quasi-geostrophic two-parameter model.Theresult is in general rather good,but for the case of blocking,the negative height-change centersouth to the position of the blocking high is not forecasted and thus the blocking high doesnot appear on our prognostic chart.This is due to the neglection of the 500 mb divergence whichis of importance for the major development of weather systems on 500 mb level.Some of theerrors is attributed to the Fjφrtoft's formula used for the graphical integration of Poissonequation.

作者用准地转两层模式以图解方法试作了24小时及48小时亚洲部分的500毫巴高度预报。从所作的几个例子来看,有的预报结果较好,但像阻塞高压的一个例子中高压位置南边的负变高没有预报出来,因此预报图上没有阻塞高压的形成。原因主要是在准地转两层模式没有恰切地考虑到500毫巴的辐散场。作者指出500毫巴上天气系统有猛烈发展时500毫巴上的辐散场是比较大的,要考虑到后者的作用就必须应用三层模式或不用准地转假定。作者并指出了 Fj(?)rtoft 的图解方法也有不小的误差。

It is the purpose of this paper to examine the applicability of the simple barotropic model forecast in low latitudes for comparatively small area in summer when the baroclinity is weak. The results show that under suitable boundary conditions, time and space differences, it may give fairly good forecasts. It also shows that the 500-mb surface is not necessarily the preferred choice for the non-divergence level. Under same boundary conditions and same space difference, the results of 6-hour simple...

It is the purpose of this paper to examine the applicability of the simple barotropic model forecast in low latitudes for comparatively small area in summer when the baroclinity is weak. The results show that under suitable boundary conditions, time and space differences, it may give fairly good forecasts. It also shows that the 500-mb surface is not necessarily the preferred choice for the non-divergence level. Under same boundary conditions and same space difference, the results of 6-hour simple extrapolation forecasts are as good as those of the 3-hour centered difference extrapolation. Under same boundary conditions and same time difference, the 200-km space difference forecasts are not always better then those of the 400-km space difference. It is suggested that due to the sloping character of the nondivergence level, the influence of the non-geostrophic flow in low latitudes over southwestern mountainous region in China, and the weakheight change in summer, some more reasonable model must be designed in order to get better numerical forecasts.

本文目的在于检验简单的正压模式是否适用于夏季低纬度小区域比较微弱等压面形势(?)的数值预报。个例计算结果,在适当的边界条件,时间与空间间隔下,虽然相关系数不大,但平均误差小,因此这种模式是可以提供参考性预报的。计算结果还指出,夏季低纬度正压模式用于700毫巴等压面并不比用于500毫巴等压面差,在同样格距,同样边界条件下,3小时中时差外延法,并不比6小时简单外延法的短期预报为好;200公里小格距也并不比400公里大格距为好。试验结果还指出要作比较正确的夏季低纬度等压面形势场的预报,由于无辐散层的倾斜,山地的影响,气压场及变化微弱,以及观测与分析的误差,如谋求准确的预报,尚有待于进一步的研究。采用过于简化的模式,是不易成功的。

 
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