In order to know the grain production of the future,according to the grey system theory,this article uses the data of the grain production from 2000 to 2004 of Henan province,exert the method of grey forecast model GM(1,1),making a dynamic forecast on the future grain production of Henan province,and provides the scientific decision-making thereunder for the development of Henan province.
Under higher levels of phosphorus supply, the phosphorus utilization efficiencies in grain production varied from 150. 9 to 350. 9 kg/kg, 229. 8 kg/kg on average. The coefficient of variation was 20. 63%.
Under lower levels of phosphorus application, the phosphorus utilization efficiencies in grain production ranged from 160. 1 to 448. 3 kg/kg, 223.1 kg/kg on average. The coefficient of variation was 23. 05%.
Results showed that both nitrogen use efficiency for plant biomass (NUEp) and that for grain production (NUEg) varied significantly among conventional varieties or hybrid combinations. The range of coefficient of variation (CV) of NUEp and NUEg was relatively wide, but the degree of variation among conventional varieties was greater than that among hybrid combinations.
Performing on the designed system, the simulation result of grain production shows that the error of forecasting is no more than in 3%, compared with other common grain production forecasting methods, the accuracy improves a lot, which means the established grain production model is accurate enough to describe the formation process of grain production effectively.