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international oil price
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  国际油价
    Using standard X -11 method, we analyze seasonal fluctuation of international oil price and discuss its movement discipline, in order to provide information support for importing oil of our country.
    利用标准X-11方法分析国际油价季节性波动,探讨油价运动规律,为我国进口石油提供信息支持。
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  international oil price
International oil price changes: impact of oil prices on growth and inflation in the EU/OECD
      
For comparison, the 1995 international oil price was equivalent to about $150 per tonne of carbon.
      


This paper analyzes the circumstance of the fluctuating Crude oil price and its reasons in recent years,and its impact on the growth rate of Export of China’ Industrial Products. The paper uses Dynamic Least Squares Method to estimate the co-integration relationships between the fluctuating oil price and the growth rate of Export of China’ Industrial Products,and then test the Granger causality relationships between the two elements. The result of our econometric analysis indicates that the rising of international...

This paper analyzes the circumstance of the fluctuating Crude oil price and its reasons in recent years,and its impact on the growth rate of Export of China’ Industrial Products. The paper uses Dynamic Least Squares Method to estimate the co-integration relationships between the fluctuating oil price and the growth rate of Export of China’ Industrial Products,and then test the Granger causality relationships between the two elements. The result of our econometric analysis indicates that the rising of international oil price slow down China’ growth rate of Export of Industrial Products.However,the growing of China’ Export of Industrial Products is not the cause of the rising of international crude oil price.

本文对国际原油价格波动与我国工业制成品出口之间的相关关系进行了实证研究,运用出口增长率等经济指标进行相关性分析和Granger因果检验,分析了近年来国际原油价格的波动是否给中国制造业出口造成了直接影响。研究结果表明,世界原油价格上涨与我国制造业出口之间存在着单向的Granger因果关系,即国际原油价格波动使得我国工业制成品出口增长速度放缓。但是,我国工业制成品出口增长加快不是导致国际原油价格进一步上涨的Granger因。

>=The paper mainly introduces and analyzes standard X-11 seasonal adjustment method in detail. We discuss the advantages and shortage of the method, and propose some suggestions for improving it. The aim is to provide some helpful grope for further research and application of seasonal adjustment method. Using standard X -11 method, we analyze seasonal fluctuation of international oil price and discuss its movement discipline, in order to provide information support for importing oil of our country....

>=The paper mainly introduces and analyzes standard X-11 seasonal adjustment method in detail. We discuss the advantages and shortage of the method, and propose some suggestions for improving it. The aim is to provide some helpful grope for further research and application of seasonal adjustment method. Using standard X -11 method, we analyze seasonal fluctuation of international oil price and discuss its movement discipline, in order to provide information support for importing oil of our country.

本文详细介绍和分析标准X-11季节调整方法,探讨其优点和不足,并提出改进建议,为进一步研究和应用季节调整方法提供有益的探索。利用标准X-11方法分析国际油价季节性波动,探讨油价运动规律,为我国进口石油提供信息支持。

>=It is an arresting new issue to research the periodicity of international oil prices fluctuation. This paper first gives an intuitional analysis on the change law of WTI oil prices from 1946 to 2005. Based on this analysis,we give a strict numerical analysis on the samples of 1973 -2005 using Fourier transform and sample periodogram, and find that there exists relatively strong 11 -year cycle of oil prices fluctuation in the observed period.

油价波动周期性是一个值得研究的新问题。本文首先对1946年至2005年的WTI油价变化规律进行直观分析,在此基础上,利用傅立叶变换和样本周期图对1973年至2005年的油价进行了严格的数理分析,发现油价波动存在比较强烈的11年循环周期。

 
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