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regional test yield
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    The cropping system was determined for every agro-ecological zone,through which the potential climatic productivity could be sufficiently developed. Based on the regional test yield of the certificated grain varieties and the cropping system,the grain potential productivity of each zone was calculated.
    研究方法:以粮食作物审定品种的区域试验产量为基础,在确定充分发挥气候资源潜力的种植制度基础上,计算了各类耕地的粮食单产,乘以全国各县1996年和2004年各类耕地的面积,得到1996年和2004年各县耕地的粮食总生产能力,汇总出各农业生态区以及全国耕地的粮食总生产能力。
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The purpose of this article is to calculate the potential grain productivity and its change of cultivated land of China between 1996 and 2004,which is meaningful for the government to implement the strategy of cultivated land protection and food security.The cropping system was determined for every agro-ecological zone,through which the potential climatic productivity could be sufficiently developed.Based on the regional test yield of the certificated grain varieties and the cropping system,the grain potential...

The purpose of this article is to calculate the potential grain productivity and its change of cultivated land of China between 1996 and 2004,which is meaningful for the government to implement the strategy of cultivated land protection and food security.The cropping system was determined for every agro-ecological zone,through which the potential climatic productivity could be sufficiently developed.Based on the regional test yield of the certificated grain varieties and the cropping system,the grain potential productivity of each zone was calculated.The total grain productivity of every county,agro-ecological zone and the whole nation was obtained by multiplying the potential grain productivity of per area and the cultivated land area in 1996 and 2004.The results show that the total grain potential productivity of China was 0.92 billion tons in 2004,and 1.08 billion tons in 1996.The total grain productivity of China has decreased by 161 million tons in eight years.Although there is large gap between the potential grain productivity and the real yield and high assurance for grain security at present,the quick loss of cultivated land is still a big threat to food security of Mainland China in the future.

研究目的:核算1996-2004年中国耕地资源的粮食总生产能力及其变化,为国家实施耕地保护战略和确保粮食安全提供决策依据。研究方法:以粮食作物审定品种的区域试验产量为基础,在确定充分发挥气候资源潜力的种植制度基础上,计算了各类耕地的粮食单产,乘以全国各县1996年和2004年各类耕地的面积,得到1996年和2004年各县耕地的粮食总生产能力,汇总出各农业生态区以及全国耕地的粮食总生产能力。研究结果:2004年全国耕地的粮食总生产能力为9.20亿t,比1996年的10.81亿t减少1.61亿t。研究结论:虽然与现实产量相比,中国的粮食生产依然有较大的增产潜力,目前粮食安全的耕地资源保障程度较高,但耕地面积大量减少所造成的生产能力损失不容忽视。中国未来粮食安全除了严格耕地保护外,更主要的是靠农业科技进步提高单产能力。

The regional test yield of the certificated grain varieties is a reachable yield under the current natural and technical condition.Based on the regional test yield of the certificated grain varieties,it is much precise to calculate the total capacity of grain production of arable land in China.In the study 105 agro-ecological regions was selected as study area and the capacity of grain production of arable land was analyzed.Firstly,cropping system in every agro-ecological region was determined...

The regional test yield of the certificated grain varieties is a reachable yield under the current natural and technical condition.Based on the regional test yield of the certificated grain varieties,it is much precise to calculate the total capacity of grain production of arable land in China.In the study 105 agro-ecological regions was selected as study area and the capacity of grain production of arable land was analyzed.Firstly,cropping system in every agro-ecological region was determined under the principle that the water and thermal potential could be sufficiently developed.Secondly,based on the regional test yield of the certificated grain varieties,the potential unit yield of one crop for every agroecological region was calculated.For rain-fed farmlands,their potential grain productivities were modified by water-restricting coefficients.The water restriction coefficients were calculated by dividing the water and thermal potential productivity with the thermal potential productivity of different grain crop,which were given in regulations of farmland grading.And then,the potential unit yield of every agro-ecological region was got through consulting the cropping system and the potential unit yields of crop.The total grain productivity of each county was obtained through multiplying the area and the potential unit yields of different kinds of cultivated lands.Finally,the total grain productivity in each agro-ecological region and the whole country were obtained by aggregating the potential grain productivity of each county.The results showed that the total potential grain productivity in China was 0.92 billion ton in 2004.It should be pointed out that this calculation of potential grain productivity did not consider the crop growth restriction factors such as soil fertility,soil depth,soil salinity,fertilizer input,and so on.When comparing this figure with the contemporaneous total grain yield and consumption,there is a large gap between the potential grain productivity and the current grain yield and high assurance of grain demand in China.The results of each agro-ecological region showed that the highest grain productivities were distributed at Northern China Plain,Northeast China,Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River and Sichuan Basin.

粮食作物审定品种的区域试验产量是当前自然和技术条件下可以实现的产量,用该单产水平计算我国耕地的粮食生产能力更具现实意义。本文以全国105个农业生态小区为研究单元,确定了能够充分发挥其气候生产潜力的种植制度;并以粮食作物审定品种的区域试验产量为基础,计算了各农业生态小区各类耕地的粮食单产;在此基础上,乘以各县各类耕地的面积,得到各县耕地的粮食总生产能力,进而汇总出各农业生态小区乃至全国的耕地粮食总生产能力。研究结果表明:2004年全国耕地的粮食总生产能力为9.20×108t。这一结果与全国同期的粮食产量和粮食消费量相比,表明目前我国的粮食生产依然有较大的增产潜力,粮食安全的耕地资源保障程度较高。

【Objective】The purpose of this paper is to explain the potential of increasing grain production in each province and to explain interprovincial differences by comparing the potential grain production and the actual grain yield of cultivated lands.【Method】 First,cropping systems were determined for 105 agro-ecological regions,through which potential climatic productivity could be sufficiently developed.Based on the regional test yield of the certificated grain cultivars and cropping systems,the potential...

【Objective】The purpose of this paper is to explain the potential of increasing grain production in each province and to explain interprovincial differences by comparing the potential grain production and the actual grain yield of cultivated lands.【Method】 First,cropping systems were determined for 105 agro-ecological regions,through which potential climatic productivity could be sufficiently developed.Based on the regional test yield of the certificated grain cultivars and cropping systems,the potential grain productivity of per unit area was calculated.The gross potential grain productivity in each county,province and Mainland China was obtained by multiplying the potential grain productivity of per unit area and the cultivated land area in 2004.By comparing it with the actual yield,the potential to increase grain production,the exploitation level of potential grain productivity and the differences between each province were acquired.【Result】The results show that the gross grain potential productivity in Mainland China was 0.92 billion ton in 2004 and that there was a large gap between the potential grain productivity and the actual yield,averaging 0.45 billion ton in recent three years.There is high assurance for grain security at present.From the results of each province,the average potential grain productivity of per unit area declines from the provinces in the southeast to those in the northwest of China,apart from Sinkiang,while that of Inner Mongolia,Ningxia,Gansu,Qinghai,Tibet,stretching from northeast to southwest of China,is lower than that of the others.The potential to increase production per unit area captured the same trend as thepotential grain productivity per unit area,which indicates that the more potential grain productivity,the more potential to increase production for a province.The provinces lying in the north and southwest of China witness low level of potential grain productivity and exploitation because of the limitation of soil quality and irrigation conditions.These are the areas where soil is hard or needs too much investment to explore more potential grain productivity.【Conclusion】As such,in order to ensure food security,food production in the east and middle of China,where basic agricultural bases are relative better,there should be more emphasis.In addition,basic agricultural infrastructure construction,land consolidation and the improvement of medium or low-yield cultivated lands should also be advocated in the north and southwest of China to explore the potential grain productivity.

【目的】通过耕地粮食生产能力与粮食现实产量的对比,分析耕地的粮食增产潜力及其省际差异。【方法】以105个农业生态小区为研究单元,在确定能够充分发挥当地气候资源潜力的种植制度的基础上,根据粮食作物审定品种的区域试验产量,计算了各区域各个耕地亚类的粮食单产能力;再分别乘以各县2004年相应耕地亚类的面积,得到2004年各县的耕地粮食总生产能力,进而汇总出各省以及全国的耕地粮食总生产能力;结合近3年(2002~2004年)的粮食现实产量,分析耕地的粮食增产潜力、粮食生产能力开发程度及其省际差异。【结果】2004年全国耕地粮食总生产能力为9.20亿t,远高于全国近3年4.52亿t的粮食平均产量,目前粮食安全的耕地资源保障程度较高。从各省的计算结果来看,除新疆以外,单位耕地的生产能力和增产潜力均表现出从东南向西北递减的趋势,其中内蒙古、宁夏、甘肃、青海、西藏5个从东北向西南延伸的省区最低;位于中国广大北部、西南部的省市,受土壤质量、灌溉条件的限制,粮食生产能力的开发程度低,粮食生产虽有一定增产空间,但实施难度较大或需大量投入。【结论】保障粮食安全首先要抓好中国农业生产基础较好的东部、中部地区的粮食生产;同时也要加大广大...

【目的】通过耕地粮食生产能力与粮食现实产量的对比,分析耕地的粮食增产潜力及其省际差异。【方法】以105个农业生态小区为研究单元,在确定能够充分发挥当地气候资源潜力的种植制度的基础上,根据粮食作物审定品种的区域试验产量,计算了各区域各个耕地亚类的粮食单产能力;再分别乘以各县2004年相应耕地亚类的面积,得到2004年各县的耕地粮食总生产能力,进而汇总出各省以及全国的耕地粮食总生产能力;结合近3年(2002~2004年)的粮食现实产量,分析耕地的粮食增产潜力、粮食生产能力开发程度及其省际差异。【结果】2004年全国耕地粮食总生产能力为9.20亿t,远高于全国近3年4.52亿t的粮食平均产量,目前粮食安全的耕地资源保障程度较高。从各省的计算结果来看,除新疆以外,单位耕地的生产能力和增产潜力均表现出从东南向西北递减的趋势,其中内蒙古、宁夏、甘肃、青海、西藏5个从东北向西南延伸的省区最低;位于中国广大北部、西南部的省市,受土壤质量、灌溉条件的限制,粮食生产能力的开发程度低,粮食生产虽有一定增产空间,但实施难度较大或需大量投入。【结论】保障粮食安全首先要抓好中国农业生产基础较好的东部、中部地区的粮食生产;同时也要加大广大北部、西南部地区的农业基础设施投入,积极开展土地整理、中低产田改造,进一步开发这些地区的粮食生产能力。

 
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