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grey predict model
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  相似匹配句对
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According to the holographic information characteristics of GM(1,1), the grey predicted model of oilfield water content is built up. The model makes it possible to avoid analysing many factors. The fact indicates that the GM(1,1) of oilfield water content is of very high precision. We also put forward the method of how to deal with the predicted deviation and the fluctuating problem of initial date at the same time.

利用灰色GM(1,1)模型的全息信息特性,在不需要多因素分析的情况下,建立了油田含水率的灰色GM(1,1)模型,实现了部分信息情况下的油田含水率预测。实际计算表明,油田含水率的灰色GM(1,1)模型具有良好的精度,检验精度等级为一级,同时也指出了含水率预测值偏高或偏低,以及含水率序列值波动较大时的数据处理方法。

This paper explains the theoretical generalization of the grey controllingsystem,the method and programm of setting up main predicting model in the system. According to the statistical data of the fly ash discharge of the national powerplants during the "Eighth Five-year-plan" period,a grey predicting model of thefly ash discharge of the national power plants is set up and the fly ash discharge ofthe national power plants in the" Eighth Five-year-plan"period,is also predicted.

论述了灰色控制系统理论的概况及灰色控制系统中主要预测模型——模型的建立方法和步骤,并以全国火力发电厂“八五”期间粉煤灰排放量的统计资料为依据,建立了全国火力发电厂粉煤灰排放量的灰色预测模型,并预测了我国“九五”期间全国火力发电厂粉煤灰的排放量。

A grey predicting model of GM(1,1) can be established with the accumulated sequence generated by the oil well decline rate before refracturing according to the theory of grey system.The model can be applied to the study of the oil wells production performance to its abandonment rate.Although the oil well's production rate may fluctuate in short term before refracturing,it has a decline tendency during a longer time if the source data are processed properly.Theoretically,if the data are declined,the...

A grey predicting model of GM(1,1) can be established with the accumulated sequence generated by the oil well decline rate before refracturing according to the theory of grey system.The model can be applied to the study of the oil wells production performance to its abandonment rate.Although the oil well's production rate may fluctuate in short term before refracturing,it has a decline tendency during a longer time if the source data are processed properly.Theoretically,if the data are declined,the accumulated sequence must have a maximum value from which the remaining recoverable reserves may be deduced.On the other hand,the data used in the model are accumulated sequence of daily oil production rate, so that the generated one become more regular,and it satisfied grey exponential law,as is suitable to be calculated by grey model of GM(1,1).It has been testified by field cases that the model needs less source data,but its precision is relatively high.It is possible to be used as a basis in selecting refracturing wells and payzones.Comparision and confirmation can be made with other estimation of remaining recoverable reserves in order to demonstrate refracturing more completely.

应用灰色系统理论,由油井重复压裂前的递减产量,生成相应的一阶累加序列,由累加序列建立了灰色预测模型GM(1,1)。据此模型研究油井由重复压裂前至废弃为止的生产动态。显然重复压裂前油井的日产油量在短期内可能波动较大,但经适当处理并从较长一段时间看,它有递减的趋势。经理论分析认为,生成的一阶累加序列有最大值,由此通过相关计算就可确定油井的剩余可采储量。此外,由于采用日产油量的累加序列建立模型,弱化了原始数据的随机波动性,强化了其规则有序性,而生成的一阶累加序列能更好地满足灰指数规律,适用于GM(1,1)模型计算。矿场实践表明,该模型所需原始数据少,但预测的精度高,可作为重复压裂选井选层的重要评判依据;也可与其它预测剩余可采储量的方法相互比较和确认,以便对重复压裂进行更加充分的论证。

 
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