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climate predictability    
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  气候的可预测性
    Based on analyzing the persistence of monthly mean wind anomalies and the East Asian monsoon-related global-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies, the inner-atmosphere-originated seasonal climate predictability is discussed.
    作者从大气月平均风场异常的持续性以及与东亚季风年际异常相关的全球大气环流异常特征两个方面初步探讨东亚夏季气候的可预测性
短句来源
  气候系统可预报性
    GLOBAL STUDY ON CLIMATE PREDICTABILITY
    气候系统可预报性的全局研究
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    Some theoretical studies on the predictability of climate system are introduced in this paper. The theory of nonlinear fastest growing perturbation is applied to investigate climate predictability.
    介绍了作者近年来关于气候系统可预报性理论研究的一些工作,包括:非线性最快增长扰动理论以及在气候预测的可预报性研究中的应用;
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  climate predictability
Our experiments suggest that SM is potentially an additional source of climate predictability.
      
The relative influence of soil moisture and SST in climate predictability explored within ensembles of AMIP type experiments
      
The main exception is the North American continent, where climate predictability is clearly reduced through the use of climatological initial conditions.
      
For the majority of the highly populated regions of the world, climate predictability on interannual to decadal time scales based in the initial value approach is likely to be severely limited by chaotic error growth.
      
Climate predictability experiments with a general circulation model
      
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Recent progress in climatological studies for the period of 1980's and early 1990's were reviewed.The following problems were discussed :(1) Climate variabilitied in the 20th century .Inter-decadal variabilities and abrupt change of climate were emphasized;(2)Simulation and prediction of ENSO.The results of a series of models were compared each other. Distinguishing feature of ENSO in early 1990's was studied;(3)ENSO and monsoon. The important role of summer monsoon in evolution of ENSO cycle...

Recent progress in climatological studies for the period of 1980's and early 1990's were reviewed.The following problems were discussed :(1) Climate variabilitied in the 20th century .Inter-decadal variabilities and abrupt change of climate were emphasized;(2)Simulation and prediction of ENSO.The results of a series of models were compared each other. Distinguishing feature of ENSO in early 1990's was studied;(3)ENSO and monsoon. The important role of summer monsoon in evolution of ENSO cycle was indicated;(4)Climate predictability . Results of monthly and seasonal prediction and simulation with observed external forcing were reviewed; (5)Analysis of factors responsible for climatic change.Uncertainties of greenhouse effect and role of solar activity and volcanism were examined.

回顾了80年代到90年代中期,气候学研究在几个方面的重要进展。共分析了五个问题:①20世纪气候变率,重点讨论年代际变率及气候突变;②ENSO模拟与预测,总结比较了各种模式的模拟与预测结果,着重讨论了90年代前半期ENSO发展的特点;③ENSO与季风,指出亚洲夏季风在ENSO循环中的重要作用;④气候可预报性研究,总结了月、季预报试验,介绍了用观测下边界强迫AGCM的研究结果;⑤气候变化成因分析,着重说明温室效应研究的不确定性及自然因子如太阳活动、火山活动在气候变化中的作用。

Based on a set of systematic hindcast experiments by IAP and OSU AGCMs and theoratical analysis the uncertainty of short-term climate prediction were studied preliminarily. The paper stressed on the uncertainties induced by atmospheric internal dynamics. The conceptual model of short-term climate predictability were concluded and the preliminary dynamical mechanisms were analysed. Future suggestions of research were proposed in the last.

基于系统的模式预测试验和理论分析,研究了气候之短期变化预测中的不确定性问题,着重探讨大气系统内部的不确定性因素。首先,给出模式预测效能(可预测性)的概念模式;然后,详细研究预测结果的不确定性及其动力学机制;最后,对短期气候预测的出路提出了一点想法。

Studies on the seasonal to extraseasonal climate prediction at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) in recent years were reviewed. The first short-term climate prediction experiment was carried out based on the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) coupled to a tropical Pacific oceanic general circulation model (OGCM) In 1997, an ENSO prediction system including an oceanic initialization scheme was set up. At the same time, researches on the SST-induced climate predictability over East Asia...

Studies on the seasonal to extraseasonal climate prediction at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) in recent years were reviewed. The first short-term climate prediction experiment was carried out based on the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) coupled to a tropical Pacific oceanic general circulation model (OGCM) In 1997, an ENSO prediction system including an oceanic initialization scheme was set up. At the same time, researches on the SST-induced climate predictability over East Asia were made. Based on the blennial signal in the interannual climate variability, an effective method was proposed for correcting the model predicted results recently In order to consider the impacts of the initial soil mois- ture anomalies, an empirical scheme was designed to compute the soil moisture by use of the atmospheric quantities like temperature, precipitation, and so on. Sets of prediction experiments were carried out to study the impacts of SST and the initial atmospheric conditinns on the flood occurring over China in 1998.

回顾了近年来在中国科学院大气物理研究所开展的有关短期气候预测研究的进展。第一个短期气候数值预测是曾庆存等利用一个耦合了热带太平洋海洋环流模式的全球大气环流模式作出的。1997年,一个基于海气耦合模式的ENSO预测系统,包括一个海洋初始化方案被建立起来,同时也开展了基于海温异常的东亚气候可预测性研究。利用气候变动的准两年信号,王会军等提出了一个可以显著改进模式预测准确率的模式结果修正方案。为了考虑土壤湿度的初始异常对夏季气候的影响,一个利用大气资料如温度、降水等经验地反演土壤湿度的方法也被建立起来。还通过一系列的数值试验研究了 1998年夏季大水发生当中海温异常和大气环流初始异常的作用。

 
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