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All the practical seismic risk analysis models are of subjective nature, the difference between them and the real prototypes includes uncertainties of two kinds of different nature, namely, the random error between the practical model and the ideal model or the objective uncertainty. This paper will discuss the influence problem of the subjective uncertainty on the attenuations law when the uncertainty is objectively corrected. Two methods for correcting attenuation law of the earthquake motion... All the practical seismic risk analysis models are of subjective nature, the difference between them and the real prototypes includes uncertainties of two kinds of different nature, namely, the random error between the practical model and the ideal model or the objective uncertainty. This paper will discuss the influence problem of the subjective uncertainty on the attenuations law when the uncertainty is objectively corrected. Two methods for correcting attenuation law of the earthquake motion obtained using the existing borrowing method usually overestimate the standard error, therefore, the seismic risk will be overestimated. The paper put forward the suggestion to modify the borrowing principle of the borrowing method. 实际使用中的危险性分析模型均带有主观的性质,其与现实原型之间的差异包含两种性质不同的不确定性,即现实模型与理想模型之间的主观不确定性,和理想模型与现实原型之间的随机误差或客观不确定性。本文具体讨论对衰减规律作(客观)不确定性校正时主观不确定性的影响问题。文中分析了衰减不确定性校正的两种做法,即在危险性分析中直接校正和先忽略衰减不确定性,求得危险性曲线后总校正的做法,讨论了两者的等价性,并用半定量的方法指出影响校正因子的主要因素,即衰减公式的标准差。文中指出现行衰减不确定性校正中明显存在以下主观不确定性问题:使用等震线等效圆半径或等效椭圆长短轴建立烈度衰减规律必然低估标准差,从而低估地震危险性;以现行借用法得到的地震动参数衰减规律通常高估标准差,从而高估地震危险性。文中提出了修改借用法借用原则的建议。 A new methodology of risk analysis using computer simulation is proposed and discussed systematically in this peper.Based on the definition of model structure for risk simulation,the paper stresses the study of the improvements on traditional risk analysis model,the estimation of output results from risk simulation,the comparison of different alternatives,and risk simulation with graphics and animation,The methodology is more effective in estimating and evaluating risk,and makes risk... A new methodology of risk analysis using computer simulation is proposed and discussed systematically in this peper.Based on the definition of model structure for risk simulation,the paper stresses the study of the improvements on traditional risk analysis model,the estimation of output results from risk simulation,the comparison of different alternatives,and risk simulation with graphics and animation,The methodology is more effective in estimating and evaluating risk,and makes risk analysis more compatible with the uncertainty of real world. 本文给出并阐述面向投资风险分析的计算机模拟新方法。在定义风险模拟基本模型的基础上,重点讨论对传统投资风险分析模型的修正与扩充、风险分析判据的模拟估计方法、不同投资方案的模拟比较方法以及投资风险分析的计算机图形描绘与动画模拟。本文所述方法更能接纳和描述对投资风险分析产生不确定性影响的各种随机因素,对风险的估计和推断更为细致和准确。 It is completely new program to study how to assess agroclimatic resources underconditions of market economy。The basic concept and theory of agrometeorologicalhazard risk analvsis are discussed and a practical risk analysis model,which is based onagroecoIogical area metliod,is established and applied to analyze agrometeorologicalhazaid risk of four main fruit trees in Zhujiang DeIta of South China, The resuItsobjectively reflect the local hazard law and risk level ,and provide important basis... It is completely new program to study how to assess agroclimatic resources underconditions of market economy。The basic concept and theory of agrometeorologicalhazard risk analvsis are discussed and a practical risk analysis model,which is based onagroecoIogical area metliod,is established and applied to analyze agrometeorologicalhazaid risk of four main fruit trees in Zhujiang DeIta of South China, The resuItsobjectively reflect the local hazard law and risk level ,and provide important basis forexploiting and utilizing agroclimatic resources,making macroscopic agricuItural decision:as well as managing the agrometeorological hazard risk。 文章研究了市场条件下的农业气候资源评价方法。讨论了农业气象灾害风险分析的基础理论,并建立以农业生态地区法为基础的风险分析实用模型。用此模型对珠江三角洲主要果树的农业气象灾害的风险进行了分析,分析结果较好地反映了当地的灾害规律和风险水平,并能为农业气候资源开发利用、农业宏观决策和农业气象灾害的风险管理提供重要的依据。
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