3. Based on the risk analysis methods of water resources system and water demand and supply model, a risk analysis model of regional water supply and utility system with large reservoir groups is put forward.

3. Based on the risk analysis methods of water resources system and water demand and supply model, a risk analysis model of regional water supply and utility system with large reservoir groups is put forward.

From the points of mathematical proceeding of uncertainty factors, the risk analysis model based on probability theory (related to the field of random) is introduced, and new risk analysis models based on fuzzy subordinative degree (related to the field of fuzzy), grey number (related to the field of grey) and unascertained mathematics (related to the field of unascertainty) are put forward.

On this basis, the risk analysis model of raising up flood control level and the multi-objective risk decision model are established by integrating the uncertain factors such as inflow flood, reservoir safe operation, the effects of flood release decrease on downstream flood control standard and ecological environment water use. Through calculation of flood-water resources utilization benefits under different flood control levels, the optimal reservoir flood control levels at different stages with different frequencies of inflow flood are sought.

A fire risk analysis model for assessing options for flammable and combustible liquid products in storage and retail occupancies

To this end, I describe a probabilistic risk analysis model that can be used to assess the benefits of different fire safety measures, focusing on reinforcing the emergency water pumps.

We accordingly develop a risk analysis model and associated likelihood-based methodology when the response follows either a gamma or reciprocal gamma distribution.

Watershed risk analysis model for TVA's Holston River basin

World literature was reviewed in order to derive a risk analysis model that would be helpful in the management of PAM.

In this paper some main risk factors are sifted within the flood control decision process for the middle reach of the Yangtze River. The risk analysis models are set up for flood control decision considering the following three kinds of information : historical data of rainfall and flood, short term forecasting of water stage as well as mid and long term forecasting of rainfall and flood. In addition, the quantitative...

In this paper some main risk factors are sifted within the flood control decision process for the middle reach of the Yangtze River. The risk analysis models are set up for flood control decision considering the following three kinds of information : historical data of rainfall and flood, short term forecasting of water stage as well as mid and long term forecasting of rainfall and flood. In addition, the quantitative descriptions are given for various flood control plans of whether to use the flood diversion areas or flood storage areas in the flood control system of the Yangtze River reach between Three Gorges and Loushan.

Three Gorges Project has huge comprehensive utilization benefit,and many engineering construction features,such as large investment cost, long construction time,complicated engineering system, many factors of uncertainty,and great influence upon society.Thus, the investment risk has become an issue for which investors are extremely concerned. This risk can be quantitatively analysed, using the computation model which is developed by combining the graphic estimation and review technique (GERT) with Monte Garlo...

Three Gorges Project has huge comprehensive utilization benefit,and many engineering construction features,such as large investment cost, long construction time,complicated engineering system, many factors of uncertainty,and great influence upon society.Thus, the investment risk has become an issue for which investors are extremely concerned. This risk can be quantitatively analysed, using the computation model which is developed by combining the graphic estimation and review technique (GERT) with Monte Garlo random simulation including correlation factor handling function.GERT random network is worked out by directly referring to relevant construction network charts,so as to bring the investment resolution,risk factor identification,and risk quantification to be more visualized,as well as the analysing process more approaching the actual one. This investment risk analysis model is adaptable for water conservancy and hydropwoer engineering system.

The paper applies the system analysis method to construct a flood season limit level risk analysis model of the reservoir. Taking Three Gorge reservoir as a case study, according to operation rule, we can effectively acquire the relationship between different flood season limit levels and maximum flood hazard risk rates. So the outcomes can provide decision makers with a trade off basis and help them make scientific...

The paper applies the system analysis method to construct a flood season limit level risk analysis model of the reservoir. Taking Three Gorge reservoir as a case study, according to operation rule, we can effectively acquire the relationship between different flood season limit levels and maximum flood hazard risk rates. So the outcomes can provide decision makers with a trade off basis and help them make scientific risk decision.