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Abstract Correct meaning of Crowding-out effect is the substitution of investment (both private and public investments) by consumption in a certain period (both private and public consumption), which does not only mean the substitution of private expenditure by government expenditure. The occurance of Crowding-out effect is conditional and has to be analyzed and studied with wide visual panorama. As to the case of China, standard Crowding-out effect by expanded government expenditure as defined... Abstract Correct meaning of Crowding-out effect is the substitution of investment (both private and public investments) by consumption in a certain period (both private and public consumption), which does not only mean the substitution of private expenditure by government expenditure. The occurance of Crowding-out effect is conditional and has to be analyzed and studied with wide visual panorama. As to the case of China, standard Crowding-out effect by expanded government expenditure as defined by monetarist has not been found at present, and in several years ahead there may occur Crowding-in effect radically different from Crowding-out effect.As China at present has far from attained economic equilibrium with full employment, therefore, it is necessary to practise a kind of fiscal policy to stimulate social investment in a comparative long period. 挤出效应的正确含义是指一定时期消费(私人消费或公共消费)对投资(私人投资或公共投资)的替代,而并非仅指政府开支对私人开支的替代。挤出效应的发生是有条件的,必须以广阔的视野对此加以分析和研究。就中国而言,目前尚未发现如货币主义者定义的政府开支扩大带来的标准挤出效应,未来几年中可能会出现一种根本不同于挤出效应的挤入效应。由于中国目前远未达到充分就业的宏观经济均衡,政府开支的挤入效应,亦即能在较长时期内刺激社会投资适度增长的财政政策是必要的。 Under the condition of opening up,FDI significantly affects the hosting country's domestic investment,this is reflected in the types of crowding out and crowding in effects to the hosting countries.The paper takes a look at the impact of FDI to China's domestic investment between 1987 and 2001,the result shows that over the past 15 years,FDI has produced the effect of crowding in to domestic investment,and also crowding out effect in some coastal provinces.And there are also differences in... Under the condition of opening up,FDI significantly affects the hosting country's domestic investment,this is reflected in the types of crowding out and crowding in effects to the hosting countries.The paper takes a look at the impact of FDI to China's domestic investment between 1987 and 2001,the result shows that over the past 15 years,FDI has produced the effect of crowding in to domestic investment,and also crowding out effect in some coastal provinces.And there are also differences in the extent of impact among different regions. 在开放条件下,FDI会对东道国国内投资产生强有力的影响,这种影响体现在FDI对东道国国内投资产生挤出效应或者挤入效应。本文对1987—2001年FDI对中国国内投资的影响进行了检验,结果表明:在最近的15年间,FDI对国内投资总体上存在显著的挤入效应;对大多数省份的投资也存在挤入效应,但在东部沿海省份挤出效应和中性效应则占一定的主导地位;FDI对不同地区投资的影响程度也存在明显的差异,呈现出由东向西渐次减弱的状态。 By reconstructing the absolute crowding in or out relationship between FDI and domestic investment, we correct the flaws of the existed relative crowding in or out model. Using larger sample of Panel data and comparing the different estimates from "absolute" and "relative" models, we find no significant crowding in or out effects in China from the country level. However, further study reveals that the crowding in or out effects show a fine regional characteristic: crowding out effects dominate... By reconstructing the absolute crowding in or out relationship between FDI and domestic investment, we correct the flaws of the existed relative crowding in or out model. Using larger sample of Panel data and comparing the different estimates from "absolute" and "relative" models, we find no significant crowding in or out effects in China from the country level. However, further study reveals that the crowding in or out effects show a fine regional characteristic: crowding out effects dominate in eastern China, crowding in effects lead in mid China, and crowding out effects are insignificant in west China. 本文构建了外商直接投资FDI对国内投资的绝对挤入挤出模型,由此修正了已有的相对挤入挤出模型存在的不严谨之处;并在此基础上讨论了FDI对我国国内投资的挤入、挤出影响。最终结论表明:在全国范围内,FDI对国内投资的挤入挤出效应不显著;而在我国东部地区则存在明显的挤出效应;在中部地区存在明显的挤入效应;在西部地区,FDI的挤出效应不显著。
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