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 Using modern precise geodetic technics to detect recent crustal movement and deformation is significant to both earthquake hazard region dividing for big dam, oid pipe line, nuclear power station and other big constructions, and mineral deposition exploring. Neverthereless, the interpretation of geodetic deformation data is a very complex problem.In current references,a general series theory and method for interpretation of geodetic deformation data has not been set up yet. As the geophysics, earth interior... Using modern precise geodetic technics to detect recent crustal movement and deformation is significant to both earthquake hazard region dividing for big dam, oid pipe line, nuclear power station and other big constructions, and mineral deposition exploring. Neverthereless, the interpretation of geodetic deformation data is a very complex problem.In current references,a general series theory and method for interpretation of geodetic deformation data has not been set up yet. As the geophysics, earth interior physics, tectonophysics, experimental petrology, solid mechanics, mathematics and other related observing, laboratory and computing, technics develop, it is possible to set up a framework of the theory and method for interpretation of geodetic deformation data. This paper discusses a series of general fundamental topics, in order to set up such a framework. These topics include: 1) the representation of forward and inverse problem for interpretation of geodetic deform tion data; 2) objective and content of the interpretation of geodetic deformation data; 3) time scale, space scale and reference system for the interpretation of geodetic deformation data; 4) practical way of the interpretation of geodetic deformation data; 5) consideration of a prior information of the models for interpretation of geodetic deformation data; 6) multilayer model for interpretation of geodetic deformation data; 7) effect of lateral inhomogeneity and local boundary irregularity; 8) refining and optimizing of models for interpretation of geodetic deformation data; 9) property of the solution and practical scheme for solution of the model of geodetic deformation; 10) recognizing and evaluating of the model for interpretation of geodetic deformation data. The author thinks that the extensive discussion of these problems in this paper will be benificial to the setting up and practical applying of the theories for interpretation of geodetic deformation data.  大地形变资料解释是一个极为复杂的问题,目前还没有用于这种解释的普遍理论和方法。本文提出和一般地讨论了大地形变资料解释中的若干基本问题。作者认为,对有关问题的广泛讨论,将有利于大地形变资料解释理论的建立和实际运用。  In this paper ,we use fuzzy preference ration methiod in fuzzy mathematics ,judge earthquake hazard regions of northeast China .The results show that Siping and Buthaqi are the most hazard areas among the glien fove areas ,intermediate strong earthquakes will perhaps occur in a few years .  应用模糊数学中的模糊优先比方法，对东北地区未来地震危险区进行判断。所得结果表明，在给定的５个地区中，吉林省的四平地区和内蒙古的布特哈旗地区的地震危险性最大，存在未来发生中强震的可能。  Earth media are incomplete media.There exist many cracks in it. The achievements of fracture mechanics showthat the strength of the incomplete materials will be much lower than that of the complete materials. We consider that earthquake occurrence is the result of unstable propagation of a crack in crust media in proper conditionand the earthquake rupture is the phenomenon of a failure by fast fracture under applied low shear stress. It hasalready been explained by fracture mechanics.The occurrence... Earth media are incomplete media.There exist many cracks in it. The achievements of fracture mechanics showthat the strength of the incomplete materials will be much lower than that of the complete materials. We consider that earthquake occurrence is the result of unstable propagation of a crack in crust media in proper conditionand the earthquake rupture is the phenomenon of a failure by fast fracture under applied low shear stress. It hasalready been explained by fracture mechanics.The occurrence of failure by fast fracture is necessarily associated with the presence of high level concentration of local stress and strain. The elastic/plastic stress analysis in cracked pieces by Dugdale indicates that thestate of stress at the tip of a crack takes a very important role to crack propagation. A plastic zone has necessarilyformed in the tip of a crack due to stress concentration. Therefore, the dislocations st the tip of a crack are naturally a plastic displacement, rather than elastic one. The plastic displacement, where τ0 is appliedshear stress which is equivalent to initial or tectonic shear stress when the quake occurs, a is the half length of acrack, It is the rigidity,τy is the yield stresses in shear. The main seismic dislocations take place exactly at theends of the crack where the plastic zone had been formed. SO, a critical assumption is adopted, i. e. we assumethe dislocation D(1,,t) as formula (5) in text. The maximum earthquake dislocation, whereL is the fault length. If p is taken the value in the upper crust, μ=33 GPa; and τy is taken the average valuegiven from laboratories,τy= 30 MPa. Thus, according to observation values of Dmax and L, using the formula,one can estimate the initial shear stresses for large earthquakes. Computations show that the initial shear stressesfor large earthquakes all over the world are about 520 MPa which have some differences between regions.We further research the characteristics of source spectra and have derived the dependent relation of bodywave magnitude mb on the shear stress τ0 and seismic moment M, as formula (11)in text. Thus, the formulaprovides a POssibility of computation of large amount of tectonic shear stress values from seismic data. We consider that the tectonic shear stress field is a main factor which controls the earthquake occurrence. The regions withhigh tectonic shear stress values are considered to be prone to occur great earthquakes (Ms>6) and called earthquake hazard regions. Based on this criterion, τ0 values for all earthquakes with mb≥3. 8 all over China since1987 have been computed, and the great earthquake hazard regions with magnitude ranges have been zoned inthe Chinese mainland.During April 1992 January 31, 1994, there were 9 Ms≥6 earthquakes which occurred in the Chinesemainland, 8 earthquakes of the 9 had fallen into the regions delineated by us prior to the earthquake occurrence,with only one failure. This new approach as a method for mediumterm prediction of strong earthquakes hasbeen proved by practice to be an efficient one.It has good physical bases and bright prospect and worth furtherresearch. Received February 7,1994 1 Accepted February 10, 1995.Contribution No. 95A0061, Institute of Geophysics,SSB, China.  ＩｎｓｅａｒｃｈｏｆｐｏｔｅｎｔｉａｌａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｓｏｕｒｃｅｒｅｇｉｏｎｓｉｎｔｈｅＣｈｉｎｅｓｅｍａｉｎｌａｎｄｉｎｔｈｅｌｉｇｈｔｏｆａｍｂｉｅｎｔ ｓｈｅａｒｓｔｒｅｓｓｆｉｅｌｄＰｅｉ－ＳｈａｎＣＨＥＮ；（陈培善）Ｔｏｎｇ－ＸｉａＢＡ...  
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