The calculated results show that the reserves in the undiscovered gas fields forecasted by the TSP distribution model are accordant with those forecasted by the fractal method,which verifies that the TSP distribution model is a reliable method of predicting the reserves in oil and gas fields.

Finally,it is concluded that the distribution of oil and gas resources forecasted by the TSP distribution model is less affected by the basin′s geological conditions,so it is worth popularizing and the method of predicting oil and gas reserves by TSP distribution model is not very perfect in comparison with the other resource evaluation methods.

On the basis of 7 reserve distribution curves in different exploration stages generalized by Houghton,according to TSP distribution model the scale distribution and quantum of the reserves in the undiscovered gas fields in the north part of Songliao Basin is forecasted and the total reserves in the undiscovered gas fields is also predicted by use of the fractal method.

The TSP distribution model was not very perfect, compared with the fractal distribution model; applying this model to predict distribution of oil and gas resources was less affected by the basin's geological conditions, so as to be worth popularizing.

A detailed analysis comparing the beta and TSP distribution based on their PERT means and variances is presented indicating better results for the second.

Nevertheless, while this approach can be only applied to the beta distribution for some values in the range of the standardized mode, in the case of the TSP distribution this methodology leads always to a solution.

The aim of this paper is to include the Two-Sided Power (TSP) distribution in the PERT methodology making use of the advantages that this four-parameter distribution offers.

On the basis of 7 reserve distribution curves in different exploration stages generalized by Houghton,according to TSP distribution model the scale distribution and quantum of the reserves in the undiscovered gas fields in the north part of Songliao Basin is forecasted and the total reserves in the undiscovered gas fields is also predicted by use of the fractal method.The calculated results show that the reserves in the undiscovered gas fields forecasted by the TSP distribution model...

On the basis of 7 reserve distribution curves in different exploration stages generalized by Houghton,according to TSP distribution model the scale distribution and quantum of the reserves in the undiscovered gas fields in the north part of Songliao Basin is forecasted and the total reserves in the undiscovered gas fields is also predicted by use of the fractal method.The calculated results show that the reserves in the undiscovered gas fields forecasted by the TSP distribution model are accordant with those forecasted by the fractal method,which verifies that the TSP distribution model is a reliable method of predicting the reserves in oil and gas fields.Finally,it is concluded that the distribution of oil and gas resources forecasted by the TSP distribution model is less affected by the basin′s geological conditions,so it is worth popularizing and the method of predicting oil and gas reserves by TSP distribution model is not very perfect in comparison with the other resource evaluation methods.

Although the exploration level of oil and gas resources in the northern Songliao Basin was relative high, there were much undiscovered oil and gas resources. On the basis of systematic study using two statistics models of the fractal distribution model and the TSP distribution model predicting oil and gas resources. According to reservoir geology law, the authors predicted the number of the undiscovered oil (gas) fields and the scale distribution in the fields. Both of the methods could be...

Although the exploration level of oil and gas resources in the northern Songliao Basin was relative high, there were much undiscovered oil and gas resources. On the basis of systematic study using two statistics models of the fractal distribution model and the TSP distribution model predicting oil and gas resources. According to reservoir geology law, the authors predicted the number of the undiscovered oil (gas) fields and the scale distribution in the fields. Both of the methods could be applied, and the results could be as a reference to be validated by the practice. Our experience showed that the fractal distribution model was a reliability one predicting the number of oil and gas fields and their reserves (resource extent), with a good application result in the highly explored basins and zones, but there might be some difficulties in newly exploring areas. The TSP distribution model was not very perfect, compared with the fractal distribution model; applying this model to predict distribution of oil and gas resources was less affected by the basin's geological conditions, so as to be worth popularizing.