Based on the runoff forecasting of some gauge stations in Tarim River Basin participated,the validity and some problems of GM(1,1) and BP algorithm existed in runoff forecasting were discussed.
The paper consists of the following parts: the analysis of chaotic characteristics in runoff time series, the application of AC in runoff forecasting, the combination of parametric regression and nonparametric AC and it’s application in runoff forecasting.
The proposed method is applied to the annual runoff prediction, in which samples are from Yamadu Hydrological Station in Xinjiang Uigur Autonomous Region. The results demonstrate the validity of the proposed method.
Based on the time series decomposable method,a prediction model of annual runoff has established on Wulasitai River,which contains the trend item,period item and the random series.
A lumped rainfall-runoff forecasting model derived from a transfer function was further applied in unison with this rainfall forecasting model to forecast flows one to four hours in advance.
When applied as a segment of an energy balance snowmelt model, the model provides information on energy exchange in an alpine environment and improved snowmelt runoff prediction.