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集合预报     
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  ensemble prediction
     Study on the Interpretation Method of Ensemble Prediction Products
     集合预报产品释用方法的研究
短句来源
     The numerical results show that there are signicicant uncertainties in the evolution of horizontal structure,rain,cloud prognostic variables and thermal and dyinamical fields. Therefore,explicit forecasts of precipitation,especially ensemble prediction of precpitation,should be performed together with the estimation of different uncertainties of different explicit schemes.
     结果表明:不同的显式方案模拟的对流风暴的最大垂直速度、水平结构和降水以及云物理量的演变都有很大的不确定性,说明要对实际降水进行全显式的数值预报可能需要对不同显式方案导致的预报结果的不确定性作出进一步的估计,集合预报中可能要考虑不同显式方案对预报结果不确定性的影响。
短句来源
     Based on the PSU/NACR Mesoscale Model version MM5, mesoscale ensemble prediction system in the upper reach of Changjiang River is constructed by using different physics schemes.
     基于PSU/NCAR的高分辨率MM5模式,采用多物理方案构建长江上游中尺度集合预报系统,于2004年8月16日—9月30日进行了预报试验。
短句来源
     (3) How to validate ensemble prediction and interpret and evaluate its products.
     同时解释怎样检验集合预报的结果的论述,如何从众多的集合预报产品中提炼有用的信息及预报产品的释用。
短句来源
     Ensemble prediction experiments and verifications for precipitation are made during 16 August to 30 September of 2004. The results show that the ensemble prediction can increase prediction accuracy of precipitation over 25mm.
     降水集合预报检验表明,在25mm以上级别的降水预报中,集合预报能改进单一模式的预报能力。
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更多       
  ensemble forecasting
     Ensemble forecasting of tropical cyclone(TC) motion was studied using a primitive equation barotropic model by perturbing initial position and structure for 1979~1993 TC.
     选择1979~1993年间的热带气旋为试验个例,通过扰动热带气旋初始位置和初始结构,构造集合成员, 用正压原始方程模式,进行路径集合预报试验, 并初步探讨预报成员的集合方法。
短句来源
     The ensemble forecasting experiments by a GCM, IAP T42L9 show that the anomalous heating over the tropics, especially over the central-western Pacific and Atlantic, favors the formation of positive anomalies of height at the Ural region.
     中期天气预报模式 IAP T42L9的集合预报试验表明,热带地区的加热异常,尤其是热带中西太平洋和大西洋的加热异常,有利于乌拉尔正高度异常的形成。
短句来源
     A Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Method for Short-range Ensemble Forecasting
     短期集合预报中定量降水预报集合方法初探
短句来源
     The Effect of Different Breeding Length upon Ensemble Forecasting Based on BGM
     基于BGM的不同繁殖长度对集合预报的影响
短句来源
     Experiment and Research of Storm Scale Ensemble Forecasting Based on Ideal Case
     基于理想个例的风暴尺度集合预报试验研究
短句来源
更多       
  ensemble forecast
     Medium-range ensemble forecast experiments using model T106L19
     用T106L19全球谱模式制作中期集合预报的试验
短句来源
     Ensemble Forecast and Application of Products
     集合预报系统及其产品应用综述
短句来源
     THE ESTABLISHMENT AND EXPERIMENT OF SHANGHAI REGIONAL NUMERICAL ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM
     上海区域数值预报模式集合预报系统的建立与试验
短句来源
     Application of ensemble forecast technique to rainstorm risk analysis
     集合预报技术在暴雨灾害风险分析中的应用
短句来源
     Secondly we do the ensemble forecast experiments by applying the Monte-Carlo method and BGM(Breeding of Growing Modes) method to control prediction respectively.
     然后用Monte-Carlo方法和增长模繁殖法对控制预报进行了集合预报试验,生成了相应的集合预报产品,并结合“真实”风暴和控制预报结果进行了对比分析。
短句来源
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  ensemble weather forecast
     Issues on Medium-short Range Ensemble Weather Forecast
     中短期天气集合预报问题
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  ensemble prediction
The sensitivity of prediction to the initial conditions and the problem of ensemble prediction are also discussed in the paper.
      
In particular, three types of multi-model ensemble prediction systems, i.e., the simple composite, superensemble, and the composite after statistically correcting individual predictions (corrected composite), are examined and compared to each other.
      
IAP DCP-II employs ensemble prediction with dynamically conditioned perturbations to reduce the uncertainty associated with seasonal climate prediction.
      
In particular, seasonal ensemble prediction of watershed variables stands to gain from conditioning on high-temporal resolution climate forecasts.
      
Finally, all kinds of economic variables, the outputs of linear and nonlinear EC-VAR models and judgmental adjustment model are used as input variables of a typical kernel-based support vector regression (SVR) for ensemble prediction purpose.
      
更多          
  ensemble forecasting
Ensemble forecasting of tropical cyclone motion using a baroclinic model
      
The purpose of this study is to investigate the effectiveness of two different ensemble forecasting (EF) techniques-the lagged-averaged forecast (LAF) and the breeding of growing modes (BGM).
      
The BFS is compared with Monte Carlo simulation and "ensemble forecasting" technique, none of which can alone produce a probabilistic forecast that quantifies the total uncertainty, but each can serve as a component of the BFS.
      
Ensemble forecasting of tropical cyclone motion: comparisonbetween regional bred modes and random perturbations
      
Ensemble forecasting of tropical cyclone motion using a barotropic model.
      
更多          
  ensemble forecast
(3) The ensemble forecast method can effectively improve prediction results.
      
Only the relative skill of the ensemble forecast mean over the control run is used to evaluate the effectiveness of the EF methods, although the EF technique is also used to quantify forecast uncertainty in some studies.
      
Additionally, the ensemble forecast approach was also used for the prediction of a tropical typhoons.
      
Long-term ensemble forecast of snowmelt runoff with the help of the physics-based models of runoff generation
      
An ensemble forecast exercise is also carried out to check model stability in reference to the uncertainty of input quantities.
      
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