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集合预报试验
相关语句
  ensemble forecast experiment
     THE ENSEMBLE FORECAST EXPERIMENT OF A SIMPLE MODEL WHICH INCLUDES RANDOM INITIAL VALUE AND RANDOM FORCING
     带随机初值和随机强迫的简单模式的集合预报试验
短句来源
  ensemble forecasting experiments
     The ensemble forecasting experiments by a GCM, IAP T42L9 show that the anomalous heating over the tropics, especially over the central-western Pacific and Atlantic, favors the formation of positive anomalies of height at the Ural region.
     中期天气预报模式 IAP T42L9的集合预报试验表明,热带地区的加热异常,尤其是热带中西太平洋和大西洋的加热异常,有利于乌拉尔正高度异常的形成。
短句来源
     ENSEMBLE FORECASTING EXPERIMENTS BASED ON THE BGM METHOD
     基于增长模繁殖法的集合预报试验
短句来源
  ensemble forecasting experiments by a
     The ensemble forecasting experiments by a GCM, IAP T42L9 show that the anomalous heating over the tropics, especially over the central-western Pacific and Atlantic, favors the formation of positive anomalies of height at the Ural region.
     中期天气预报模式 IAP T42L9的集合预报试验表明,热带地区的加热异常,尤其是热带中西太平洋和大西洋的加热异常,有利于乌拉尔正高度异常的形成。
短句来源
  “集合预报试验”译为未确定词的双语例句
     Ensemble forecasting of tropical cyclone(TC) motion was studied using a primitive equation barotropic model by perturbing initial position and structure for 1979~1993 TC.
     选择1979~1993年间的热带气旋为试验个例,通过扰动热带气旋初始位置和初始结构,构造集合成员, 用正压原始方程模式,进行路径集合预报试验, 并初步探讨预报成员的集合方法。
短句来源
     Short-Range Ensemble Simulation of “2003.8.28” Heavy Rain on the East Side of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau
     青藏高原东侧“2003.8.28”暴雨的集合预报试验
短句来源
     Secondly we do the ensemble forecast experiments by applying the Monte-Carlo method and BGM(Breeding of Growing Modes) method to control prediction respectively.
     然后用Monte-Carlo方法和增长模繁殖法对控制预报进行了集合预报试验,生成了相应的集合预报产品,并结合“真实”风暴和控制预报结果进行了对比分析。
短句来源
     Experiment and Research of Storm Scale Ensemble Forecasting Based on Ideal Case
     基于理想个例的风暴尺度集合预报试验研究
短句来源
     EXPERIMENTS OF ENSEMBLE FORECAST OF TYPHOON TRACK USING BDA PERTURBING METHOD
     基于BDA扰动法的台风路径集合预报试验研究
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    In this paper, the seasonal forecasting experiments of summer (June~August) circulation in the Northern Hemisphere are done with a nonsteady atmosphere earth surface coupled anomaly model under the foundation of improving the model. Through analyzing the results of forecast of June~August from 1982 to 1989, it is shown that the forecast effectiveness in this model is superior to the persistence forecast, however, there is serious systematic error in the model that the anomaly center shift seriously to the...

    In this paper, the seasonal forecasting experiments of summer (June~August) circulation in the Northern Hemisphere are done with a nonsteady atmosphere earth surface coupled anomaly model under the foundation of improving the model. Through analyzing the results of forecast of June~August from 1982 to 1989, it is shown that the forecast effectiveness in this model is superior to the persistence forecast, however, there is serious systematic error in the model that the anomaly center shift seriously to the low latitudes. The experiments of removing systematic error are done with three methods, and the advantage and disadvantage are compared. Two ensemble forecast approaches are put forward based on the special characteristic of forecasting monthly averaged anomaly terms in the model. The first one is that more than one initial fields with May are built up by using smoothing average, and the second one is that the difference period averages are used to replace the initial field with May. Ensemble forecast experiments from June to August in 1987 are carried out using above two methods. The results show that the forecast is better than or similar to the individual forecast.

    本文在对地气耦合非定常距平模式做了一些改进的基础上,进行了北半球夏季(6~8月)环流的季节预报试验。对1982~1989年6~8月预报结果分析表明:预报效果优于持续性预报;但模式预报存在着明显的系统误差;距平中心向低纬度的漂移严重。用3种不同方法做了消除系统误差的试验,比较了它们的优劣。此外,针对距平模式预报的是月平均距平量这一特点,提出了两种集合预报方案:一种是用滑动的平均量做出多个5月份初始场;另一种是采用不同长度的时段平均,替代5月份初始场;用上述两种方案做了1987年6~8月的集合预报试验,结果表明优于或接近于非集合的单个预报的结果

    The conception and method of ensemble forecasting is introduced the field of numerical medium-range forecasting by using the global spectral model T42L9 developed by IAP. The first day′s forecasting error of the model T42L9 times random number is regarded as the initial error′s disturbance field. Then, the experiment of ensemble forecasting is made by using the methods of Monte Carlo forecasting and lagged average forecasting comprehensively. The results show that the ensemble forecasting of the equivalent and...

    The conception and method of ensemble forecasting is introduced the field of numerical medium-range forecasting by using the global spectral model T42L9 developed by IAP. The first day′s forecasting error of the model T42L9 times random number is regarded as the initial error′s disturbance field. Then, the experiment of ensemble forecasting is made by using the methods of Monte Carlo forecasting and lagged average forecasting comprehensively. The results show that the ensemble forecasting of the equivalent and differential weight average, made by each ensemble member, is better distinctly than only control forecasting, and in the ensemble forecasting of differential weight average, the regional differential weight average forecasting is better than the global differential weight average.

    利用中国科学院大气物理研究所研制的T42L9 谱模式, 在中期数值预报领域中引入集合预报的概念和方法, 初始扰动场取为T42L9 谱模式24 小时预报误差的平均均方差乘随机数, 再综合利用蒙特卡洛预报( MCF) 和落后平均预报(LAF) 两种方法作集合预报试验, 试验结果表明: 各成员预报的等权平均或不等权平均的集合预报明显优于单一的控制预报; 不等权平均与等权平均的集合预报结果相比较, 不等权平均的集合预报优势较明显; 在不等权平均的集合预报中, 区域性不等权平均又比全球性不等权平均的预报稍好。

    In this paper the influence of positioning error of TC center on the prediction of TC track was discussed and some ensemble schemes based on dynamic interpretation method for TC track forecast was designed and experimented for TC samples in 1997 and 1998 typhoon season.The results indicate the forecasting mean error can be reducde by using the ensemble forecast scheme 2 and it is suitable for operational use.

    考虑到热带气旋中心定位的不确定性以及热带气旋 (以下简称 TC)路径动力释用预报对 TC中心位置初值的敏感性 ,本文以 TC路径动力释用预报方案 [1]为基础 ,应用集合预报原理构造了具有 50个成员的集合预报试验方案 ,经1997和 1998年 15个 TC的 118次试验对比 ,结果表明 ,50个成员的集合预报方案2的改进效果较好 ,其平均距离误差较业务预报的平均距离误差有较显著的减小。集合预报原理应用于 TC路径动力释用预报的可行性和有效性是可靠的。

     
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